People ask me a lot, “Who do you like at quarterback?” And while there are specific traits that I look for, no draft candidate is ever a slam dunk; especially at that position. In fact, of all the quarterbacks that will get drafted in the first round (regardless of the year), you can pretty much count on half of them being busts. Why is that? There are a number of reasons, but I think the primary one is the fact that the NFL is such a quarterback driven league and teams are looking for any reason to draft a quarterback early – as opposed to giving that position even more scrutiny.
So, back to the original question . . . Here are the quarterbacks that I think will most likely be selected somewhere in the first round and my analysis of them, including my order of preference.
Josh Rosen – UCLA:
6′-4″ – 226 lbs. – 31 3/4″ arms – 9 7/8″ hands
Rosen is far and away the purest passer in this year’s draft. He’s also got the highest football IQ of any of his contemporaries. His ability to operate within the structure of an offense from inside the pocket is also top notch among his peers. His arm is strong enough to make all the throws consistently and with the right amount of touch as well. Often times, Rosen is the smartest person in the room; sometimes causing people to question his ability to lead, and others think he may be too opinionated – particularly in politics or other things outside of football. Some question his love for the game because of his affluent background. Granted, wearing an “F-Trump” ball cap to a golf course owned by the 45th POTUS isn’t what I would call good form (or even well-advised), but the kid is young. And if that’s his worst mistake you can call him out on, then I’m fine with that. Susceptibility to injury is a cause for concern, as he was twice diagnosed for concussions. His ability to escape from a collapsing pocket has also been questioned. All things considered, Josh Rosen is the most NFL ready quarterback prospect in the 2018 draft.
NFL comparison: Jared Goff
Josh Allen – Wyoming
6′-5″ – 237 lbs. – 33 1/4″ arms – 10 1/8″ hands
Every physical trait you can name on Allen is equal to or greater than current Philadelphia Eagles starting quarterback Carson Wentz. Where Wentz exceeds Allen is in terms of years under virtually the same offensive system and possibly the capacity to pick up concepts quickly. This is not necessarily a knock on Allen, as Wentz was a 2-time academic all-American. What I am saying is that Allen should not start in the NFL until at least somewhere in his second pro season because he is definitely a work in progress. As far as the WOW factor . . . if you were to cut up all the top passing plays of all this year’s quarterbacks, at least the top 25-30 of them would be Allen’s. Currently Allen is not a throw his receiver open guy, but I’ve seen the potential for him to become one. He does posses an incredibly strong arm, and has shown the ability to “drop the ball into the bucket.” The second half of the Senior Bowl shows at least a handful of such throws. Where Allen needs to improve upon is his footwork, which contributed to his 56% completion rate. Once those corrections are made, I’m confident that his completion rate will rise to something above 62%. Allen also shows an uncanny ability to throw the football from an awkward delivery when needed. While he has the ability to move within the pocket, he also possesses the ability to escape from the pocket, buy time and make a big play downfield.
NFL comparison: Carson Wentz
Baker Mayfield – Oklahoma
6′-0 3/8″ – 215 lbs. – 30 1/4″ arms – 9 1/4″ hands
The Heisman Trophy winner’s greatest asset is his ability to pick up offensive concepts and do it quickly. He’s a feisty competitor and team leader. His arm strength is adequate to make all the throws, but is certainly no cannon. While his feet inside the pocket are active, they’re not nervous feet. He’s just a high energy guy. His lack of height is going to be an obstacle at the next level, and particularly with hand size, but there are others who have overcome it to excel at the position. His off the field antics leave me thinking that he needs to mature some, but I think he’s smart enough to learn from his mistakes. Mayfield can work well within the structure of an offense, yet escape a collapsing pocket to make a play downfield. He does struggle in blitz situations, though; but again, I think he can learn to deal with those scenarios and excel as a professional.
NFL comparison: Fran Tarkenton
Sam Darnold – USC
6′-3″ – 221 lbs. – 31″ arms – 9 3/8″ hands
For some reason, ball security – both in terms of interceptions and fumbles inside the pocket – are an issue with Darnold. That’s a concern with teams that value ball security. Darnold also lacks the ability to anticipate and throw his receiver open. He also has moments where he doesn’t see the field as well as perhaps he should, particularly in the middle of the field. His arm strength is more than adequate to make all the throws, in spite of mechanics that are all over the place with an elongated delivery. Footwork is also an area that needs work. He’s also a good team leader . . . a quiet one, but still a good leader. More of a baller than a technician inside the pocket, and he can escape the pocket to make a play downfield. In private conversations, I’ve also referred Sam Darnold a character in the move Draft Day . . . Bo Callahan. In case you didn’t see the movie, Bo Callahan was a “can’t miss” QB prospect who was considered at the end of the movie to be a bust by Browns GM Sonny Weaver.
NFL Comparison: Norm Snead
Lamar Jackson – Louisville
6′-2″ – 216 lbs. – 33 1/8″ arms – 9 1/2″ hands
The former Heisman Trophy winner is – without a doubt – the most electrifying quarterback in this draft because of his ability to make things happen with his feet. He’s most accurate making throws to the middle portion of the field. He also struggles with throws outside the numbers. His arm strength is more than adequate to make all the throws, but his footwork can let him down in terms of his accuracy. When speaking during an interview, Jackson does not come off as being particularly articulate. I don’t think it’s from a lack of intelligence, but rather from his cultural surroundings. Bobby Petrino had him running a very sophisticated high powered offense, so intelligence is not an issue with Jackson. Like all mobile quarterbacks, Jackson will need to learn how to beat NFL defenses with his brain and with his arm. Given time, I have no doubt that Lamar Jackson will be able to do just that.
NFL Comparison: Michael Vick