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WUNKLE RATES THE QUARTERBACKS: 2018 DRAFT
People ask me a lot, “Who do you like at quarterback?” And while there are specific traits that I look for, no draft candidate is ever a slam dunk; especially at that position. In fact, of all the quarterbacks that will get drafted in the first round (regardless of the year), you can pretty much count on half of them being busts. Why is that? There are a number of reasons, but I think the primary one is the fact that the NFL is such a quarterback driven league and teams are looking for any reason to draft a quarterback early – as opposed to giving that position even more scrutiny.
So, back to the original question . . . Here are the quarterbacks that I think will most likely be selected somewhere in the first round and my analysis of them, including my order of preference.
Josh Rosen – UCLA: 6′-4″ – 226 lbs. – 31 3/4″ arms – 9 7/8″ hands
Rosen is far and away the purest passer in this year’s draft. He’s also got the highest football IQ of any of his contemporaries. His ability to operate within the structure of an offense from inside the pocket is also top notch among his peers. His arm is strong enough to make all the throws consistently and with the right amount of touch as well. Often times, Rosen is the smartest person in the room; sometimes causing people to question his ability to lead, and others think he may be too opinionated – particularly in politics or other things outside of football. Some question his love for the game because of his affluent background. Granted, wearing an “F-Trump” ball cap to a golf course owned by the 45th POTUS isn’t what I would call good form (or even well-advised), but the kid is young. And if that’s his worst mistake you can call him out on, then I’m fine with that. Susceptibility to injury is a cause for concern, as he was twice diagnosed for concussions. His ability to escape from a collapsing pocket has also been questioned. All things considered, Josh Rosen is the most NFL ready quarterback prospect in the 2018 draft.
NFL comparison: Jared Goff
Josh Allen – Wyoming6′-5″ – 237 lbs. – 33 1/4″ arms – 10 1/8″ hands
Every physical trait you can name on Allen is equal to or greater than current Philadelphia Eagles starting quarterback Carson Wentz. Where Wentz exceeds Allen is in terms of years under virtually the same offensive system and possibly the capacity to pick up concepts quickly. This is not necessarily a knock on Allen, as Wentz was a 2-time academic all-American. What I am saying is that Allen should not start in the NFL until at least somewhere in his second pro season because he is definitely a work in progress. As far as the WOW factor . . . if you were to cut up all the top passing plays of all this year’s quarterbacks, at least the top 25-30 of them would be Allen’s. Currently Allen is not a throw his receiver open guy, but I’ve seen the potential for him to become one. He does posses an incredibly strong arm, and has shown the ability to “drop the ball into the bucket.” The second half of the Senior Bowl shows at least a handful of such throws. Where Allen needs to improve upon is his footwork, which contributed to his 56% completion rate. Once those corrections are made, I’m confident that his completion rate will rise to something above 62%. Allen also shows an uncanny ability to throw the football from an awkward delivery when needed. While he has the ability to move within the pocket, he also possesses the ability to escape from the pocket, buy time and make a big play downfield.
NFL comparison: Carson Wentz
Baker Mayfield – Oklahoma6′-0 3/8″ – 215 lbs. – 30 1/4″ arms – 9 1/4″ hands
The Heisman Trophy winner’s greatest asset is his ability to pick up offensive concepts and do it quickly. He’s a feisty competitor and team leader. His arm strength is adequate to make all the throws, but is certainly no cannon. While his feet inside the pocket are active, they’re not nervous feet. He’s just a high energy guy. His lack of height is going to be an obstacle at the next level, and particularly with hand size, but there are others who have overcome it to excel at the position. His off the field antics leave me thinking that he needs to mature some, but I think he’s smart enough to learn from his mistakes. Mayfield can work well within the structure of an offense, yet escape a collapsing pocket to make a play downfield. He does struggle in blitz situations, though; but again, I think he can learn to deal with those scenarios and excel as a professional.
NFL comparison: Fran Tarkenton
Sam Darnold – USC6′-3″ – 221 lbs. – 31″ arms – 9 3/8″ hands
For some reason, ball security – both in terms of interceptions and fumbles inside the pocket – are an issue with Darnold. That’s a concern with teams that value ball security. Darnold also lacks the ability to anticipate and throw his receiver open. He also has moments where he doesn’t see the field as well as perhaps he should, particularly in the middle of the field. His arm strength is more than adequate to make all the throws, in spite of mechanics that are all over the place with an elongated delivery. Footwork is also an area that needs work. He’s also a good team leader . . . a quiet one, but still a good leader. More of a baller than a technician inside the pocket, and he can escape the pocket to make a play downfield. In private conversations, I’ve also referred Sam Darnold a character in the move Draft Day . . . Bo Callahan. In case you didn’t see the movie, Bo Callahan was a “can’t miss” QB prospect who was considered at the end of the movie to be a bust by Browns GM Sonny Weaver.
NFL Comparison: Norm Snead
Lamar Jackson – Louisville6′-2″ – 216 lbs. – 33 1/8″ arms – 9 1/2″ hands
The former Heisman Trophy winner is – without a doubt – the most electrifying quarterback in this draft because of his ability to make things happen with his feet. He’s most accurate making throws to the middle portion of the field. He also struggles with throws outside the numbers. His arm strength is more than adequate to make all the throws, but his footwork can let him down in terms of his accuracy. When speaking during an interview, Jackson does not come off as being particularly articulate. I don’t think it’s from a lack of intelligence, but rather from his cultural surroundings. Bobby Petrino had him running a very sophisticated high powered offense, so intelligence is not an issue with Jackson. Like all mobile quarterbacks, Jackson will need to learn how to beat NFL defenses with his brain and with his arm. Given time, I have no doubt that Lamar Jackson will be able to do just that.
NFL Comparison: Michael Vick
Am I going mad, or did the word THINK escape your lips? You were not hired for your brains, you hippopotamic landmass!
Thanks to Mike and DPD for the feedback. Sam Darnold, though he seems to be the consensus number 1 QB in the draft by all the “experts”, just scares the living crap out of me. Yes, he’s a gifted athlete and by all accounts a tremendous kid; but there are times when I see him play that there’s something wanting in his game. Perhaps an inability to recognize defenses as quickly as he should, or an inability to see the entire field – particularly the middle of it. The pick-6 against Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl is a prime example, but there are other instances as well. I certainly don’t wish him any ill will, but I am nervous at the prospect of him becoming the next quarterback of the future for the Cleveland Browns.
Am I going mad, or did the word THINK escape your lips? You were not hired for your brains, you hippopotamic landmass!
Yeah, while Darnold has the moves to make for a great highlight film, his fumbilitis is a major concern.
Mayfield has that “badass” feel to him, and honestly the type of attitude I love to see in a player…but those off-field issues coupled with his size would scare me away were I a GM.
Josh Rosen is probably the safest bet of all the QBs, where Josh Allen may have the highest ceiling. Gonna be an interesting draft.
any QB we pick at #1 will have a year to sit and learn unless t rod gets destroyed like RG3 did in game 1 “Knock wood” hopefully we pick a great one who’ll stabilize the position for us for a decade.
but those off-field issues coupled with his size would scare me away were I a GM.
I’ve heard this said multiple times from so many people, and I have to say, I don’t understand what people mean about this.
What “off-the-field issues”? I mean that seriously. Here’s the entire list of his “issues”:
2 years ago he got a drunk and disorderly charge. Yes, it was an embarrassing incident (because he tried to run, like an idiot), but name me the number of kids that DON’T get drunk and do something stupid at least once in college. What is it, 5, 6 lol? It’s not like he was driving through campus naked and flipping everyone the the bird. He got drunk once and was walking home, oooooooooooooooooh.
He planted the Oklahoma flag at the 50-yard line at OSU. Now personally, this one pissed me off because I’m a huge Ohio State fan and I thought it was bush-league and disrespectful. But in reality, who cares? Oooooooooh, he planted a flag!!!! A little bit of over-exuberance on his part, but he was really fired up after a huge win for his team while avenging a loss from the previous season to the same team, this time in their house. It’s not like he dragged his balls across the logo and spit on it while rubbing it in with his foot. At most, he looked foolish because the Shoe has artificial turf and the flag just immediately fell down. I still fail to see how this particular action is, was, and somehow continues to be a character flaw of some kind. I really don’t get it. (Also, this was “on the field”, not off).
The across the field yelling/crotch grabbing against Kansas. (Another “on the field” incident). This drew all kinds of attention as well because he grabbed his junk an told the other team to stick to basketball. Everyone jumped on him for this but almost everyone ailed to mention that all of the Kansas players refused to shake his hand at the coin toss. Now I’m not saying that Mayfield handled it very maturely, but Kansas was amazingly disrespectful to him first and I don’t think a crotch tug and “stick to basketball” is so egregious of an offense in retaliation as to have his character challenged. Again, a bit immature at most, crude at worst.
That’s it. That’s the entire list of Baker Mayfield transgressions that have him labeled negatively and that have raised so many red flags. I think it’s a joke. Two of those things happened on the field not off, and I think sometimes people forget that he’s a 22 year old kid, not a 35 year old man who knows better and is control of his emotions.
To me it’s totally ridiculous. I think if people are going to judge him, judge him on his skills, his size, and whether or not you think his game can translate to the NFL. That’s all fair game. But bringing up this narrative of “off-the-field” incidents is a bunch of bullshit. So are the Johnny Manziel comparisons. Johnny Drunkenblow had already established himself as a completely out-of-control party animal with multiple drunken incidents on his resume before he even got to College Station, and it only progressed from there during his 2 year college career. Baker Mayfield is a walk-on football player who did nothing but bust his ass his entire college career to get himself and his team in the position to have the success that they did. Him and Manziel are two completely different people.
While the list isn’t as lengthy as Johnny Manziel, there’s the beginning of what may be determined as a particular pattern of behavior if it goes unchecked. The flagpole thing isn’t even an issue as far as I’m concerned. However, the drunken disorderly incident is a concern. Hopefully for Baker, this is a one-time boneheaded moment in a young man’s life that he can learn from. If not, then it’ll be a concern. To ignore it completely would be foolish beyond comprehension. If he’s learned anything from the incident, then you can chalk it up as a lesson in life that had to be learned the hard way. Then it’ll be time to move on to bigger and better things.
Am I going mad, or did the word THINK escape your lips? You were not hired for your brains, you hippopotamic landmass!
Hopefully for Baker, this is a one-time boneheaded moment in a young man’s life that he can learn from. If not, then it’ll be a concern. To ignore it completely would be foolish beyond comprehension. If he’s learned anything from the incident, then you can chalk it up as a lesson in life that had to be learned the hard way. Then it’ll be time to move on to bigger and better things.
Wouldn’t you say at this point it’s fair to call it a one-time incident though? It’s been 2 years since this happened now. Nothing else since then. And again, I’d like to point out that what he originally did wasn’t even that big of a damn deal anyway. Unless we’re going to start looking down on and being “concerned” over college kids getting drunk occasionally, uh, it’s not a big deal. He got drunk, was walking home, and ran when the police showed up. It’s hardly a pattern of behavior or an indictment at all on his character. If he had actually been doing something wrong, committed a crime or been part of a serious offense sure, but a 20 year old college kid walking home drunk after a party and being a little loud while doing it doesn’t sound any alarms for me in any way. I’d just call him an idiot.
I despise the thought process that one incident establishes in stone who you are, what you’re about, and defines your character as a person. If that were the case I’d be fucked, cast away from society and ostracized to live out the rest of my days as a recluse/hermit up on a mountain for some of the stupid shit I did between 18-24.
It’s absolutely ridiculous to me.
At this point, it most likely is a one-time thing. However, it still needed to be investigated and addressed. And BTW . . . you’re not the only one who looks back at the stuff they’d done between the ages of 18-24 and wonder “How did I manage to get here?” The thing is that neither of us is being asked to become the face of an NFL franchise either.
Am I going mad, or did the word THINK escape your lips? You were not hired for your brains, you hippopotamic landmass!
I think Manziel’s issues are VERY different from Mayfield. Manziel was not a hard worker. He was entitled through his entire life up to and including his time in the NFL. He didn’t EARN anything. He was naturally gifted and wasted his gift. He had no love for football.
Mayfield is immature but he’s earned everything he’s gotten. He walked on at Texas Tech where he crushed it. Then he walked on again at Oklahoma. where he obviously crushed it again. He needs to learn from those stupid mistakes he made. If he were 3 inches taller he would have been the top prospect in this draft.
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