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Dawgstyle breaks down the Browns season so far
If I told you at the beginning of this season that this team would be 5-1 with QB play slightly better than Josh McCown’s, would you have believed me? I wouldn’t. Perhaps that is what is most surprising about this year’s Cleveland Browns. Sure, the losses hurt, but three of out four losses have been decided by a touchdown or less, two of those only by a field goal, and one of those may not have been a loss had Tramon Williams not been the victim of a shitty call which allowed the Chargers to re-kick the go ahead field goal as time was winding down.
Excuses? Yes. But they are not without merit. We took a 5-0 team to the wire yesterday. We took the Chargers to the wire (who themselves took the 5-0 Packers to the wire yesterday). This is a competitive football team that has hung in there against top notch competition, even overcoming 2 score deficits that in years past would have been the start of monumental blow outs.
Now why did I say 5-1 if the QB play had been “slightly better than McCown’s”? Because that’s a fact. McCown has been playing far better than any of us had ever imagined. But McCown is not playing great. He is currently ranked #16 in yards, 13th in TDs, and 10th in INTs. While far better than anything the Browns have seen at QB in the last 20 years, McCown is not playing at a bonafide Franchise QB level. I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again:
This team needs a legitimate franchise QB if we are ever going to compete for anything more than 3rd place in the AFC North.
I’m not talking about just another Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers either (though that would certainly be nice). Imagine Cam Newton, Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton, Ben Roethlisberger (okay, I just threw up a little there), Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, Drew Brees, Andrew Luck, Matt Ryan or Tony Romo on this roster. That’s 12 quarterbacks, over 1/3 of the 32 starting QBs in the league – 3 of whom are in our division, that would have this team at 5-1 (and possibly 6-0 because the Jets game might have gone differently if McCown hadn’t been knocked out on the first drive). Let that sink in for a minute.
Is Johnny Manziel the answer? Maybe, but it’s not looking good. This guy can’t go 6 weeks without screwing up and ending up with his mug plastered all over the place. Sorry Johnny, I tried to like you.
The unfortunate reality is that the window of opportunity before the next reset is closing. The following players are at (or beyond) their 7th year in the league:
Gary Barnidge
Desmond Bryant
Karlos Dansby
John Greco
Brian Hartline
Paul Kruger
Andy Lee
Alex Mack
Josh McCown
Randy Starks
Joe Thomas
Donte Whitner
Tramon WilliamsSubtract those players from the roster and tell me what you think that team’s record would be right now. Our 2-4 record is being artificially inflated by free agent acquisitions and our recent draft picks give little cause for hope. In the past 5 years, we have had 9 first round draft picks.
2010: Joe Haden
2011: Phil Taylor
2012: Trent Richardson, Brandon Weeden
2013: Barkevious Mingo
2014: Justin Gilbert, Johnny Manziel
2015: Danny Shelton, Cameron IrvingIt should be noted that our current GM is only responsible for the last two years, though that is hardly an endorsement of his body of work. The consensus around the NFL is that the Browns are not an overly talented team. Despite that, we have been competitive week in and week out. In spite of that, some are still calling Pettine the “worst coach in NFL history”.
Nonsense. While Pettine is no Bill Belichick, he’s no Butch Davis, Romeo Crennel, Rob Chudzinski or Eric Mangini either. Not only is Pettine not the worst coach in NFL history, if you look at what he’s done with the talent he’s got, Pettine is arguably the Browns best head coach since the return. When this team falls behind (which happens often), he makes adjustments that get them right back into the game. No other coaching staff since the return has done that.
Perhaps that’s what draws such vitriol. We’re close. We can see it. We are in these games and we SHOULD have won. That’s what makes the losses so tough to bear, and it’s what makes Pettine public enemy #1 after a loss. But take another look at the roster. On paper, we should not be in these games. They should not be close. Many people had picked the Broncos/Browns games as their “lock of the week” and we almost handed the 6-0 Broncos their first loss.
So what am I suggesting? Let’s look at our remaining schedule.
Week 7 @ Rams
Prediction: Loss
Reason: While inconsistent, the Rams beat the Seahawks at home and the Arizona Cardinals on the road. While the Browns are certainly capable of winning this game, the Rams are coming off of their bye week. That extra week to heal up and prepare will make the Rams tough to beat.Week 8 Cardinal
Prediction: Loss
Reason: Carson Palmer knows how to win in Cleveland, and unlike the Browns, the Cardinals are still playing for something. Another slow start for the Browns will result in a lead that we just can’t overcome.Week 9 @ Bengals
Prediction: Loss
Reason: In years past this would have been a winnable game. Not this year. Much like teams did with Brian Hoyer a year ago, defenses are going to figure out Josh McCown. That starts here and I expect a marked drop in QB production moving forward. The Bengals are simply too good to beat at home right now.Week 10 @ Steelers
Prediction: Loss
Reason: Big Ben will be back in the lineup and the Steelers, having kept their playoff dreams alive in his absence, will be playing for a playoff spot (if not the division lead).Week 11 Bye
Week 12 Ravens
Prediction: Win
Reason: Division games are never meaningless, and the Browns have a history of winning games that will hurt their draft position even though the season is over. Unwilling to lose the battle to win the war, the Browns sweep the Ravens and win declare a moral victory.Week 13 Bengals
Prediction: Loss
Reason: The Bengals NEED to win this game, and the Browns will have little to play for at this point in the season.Week 14 49ers
Prediction: Win
Reason: If this game were in San Francisco I would give it to the 49ers, but they, like the Browns, will not be playing for the post season and i wouldn’t be surprised if the weather is the biggest factor in this game.Week 15 @ Seahawks
Prediction: Loss
Reason: Seattle might still be in wildcard contention, and if so, the crowd is going to be rabid for this “easy win”.Week 16 @ Chiefs
Prediction: Win
Reason: As I mentioned before, we love to win meaningless games that will hurt our draft stock, and the Kansas City Chiefs without Jamaal Charles are just not a good team.Week 17 Steelers
Prediction: Loss
Reason: This could get ugly. The Steelers will be trying to assert their dominance heading into the playoffs and the Browns will be thinking about the 2016 season.I am predicting we will finish the 2015 season 5-11 and draft 7th behind the Ravens, Jaguars, 49ers, Chiefs, Lions and Buccaneers. The Ravens (Flacco), Jaguars (Bortles) and Buccaneers (Winston) are not likely to take a QB and would be excellent candidates to move out of the number one spot. It’s going to cost us, though I believe Robert Griffin III’s failure in Washington spelled the end of trading 3 first round picks to move up a few spots. I wouldn’t be surprised if it took our first rounder picks this year and next year to move up to #1 overall if there is a QB we covet (Cook/Goff).
Here’s my question for you Browns fans: Would you trade the wins I have predicted above (even if you don’t agree with them) to lock up the #1 pick in the next draft in hopes that the Browns will finally land their franchise signal caller?
You’re on the clock Browns fans. With our window of opportunity closing, what would you do?
I would never trade wins for a draft pick. NEVER. That’s like trading your salary for lottery tickets. How many of those AMAZING top 5 QB’s have actually worked out in the past few years?
I disagree about Pettine being a good coach. He makes remedial mistakes and always attempts to outthink the opponent and overanalyze. I’ve said it before – it’s a simple game. It doesn’t need complicated
At the end of half 1 vs Baltimore he let time run down rather than utilizing his timeouts to get the ball back to score.
At the end of half 1 against Denver he did the same thing – rather than having the ball back with 55 seconds on the clock and 2 timeouts on our own 41 – we had 18 seconds with 3 timeouts. An extra 37 seconds could’ve resulted in a FG.
The stupidity to go for 2 at the end of the game is unforgivable. It’s a mistake that should’ve never been made in the first place.
As for Farmer – his talent has been awful. At the same time – is it all the talent or the coaching? With Manziel we all knew it was Haslam and it was a terrible – wasted reach of a 6th round pick. Throw that out.
Gilbert was basically a consensus “best corner in the draft.”
Erving was another consensus 1st round pick.My point with these 2 is – is it the talent or the inability of the coaching to get the most out of the talent?
I personally think both guys are worthless at this point. that said – it would be a huge mistake to fire either of them. The only way this team moves on is by riding out their contracts and just not renewing them – this let’s Haslam prove to real talent that he’s willing to see the plan through.
Freedom!!!
“I would never trade wins for a draft pick. NEVER. That’s like trading your salary for lottery tickets. How many of those AMAZING top 5 QB’s have actually worked out in the past few years?”
You and I look at the situation differently here. If the goal is getting to the Superbowl (and it should be), and it becomes apparent that you will not make the playoffs, wins actually hurt your team. How many “moral victories” has this team won when the outcome had no bearing on the post season?
It is not the draft pick you are losing for, per se. You are losing to gain control of your own draft destiny. You’re ensuring you’ve done everything you can improve your roster for the next season and get the player you covet so that you don’t 1) miss out on him all together or 2) pay a sum like the Washington did if he doesn’t work out.
Case in point: We were in a position to deliberately lose in 2011 and draft Andrew Luck in 2012. Without looking it up, tell me who we won our 4 games against that year. How much value did those wins bringing to us in 2012 when we won 5 games? Do you think the fortunes of this team from 2012 to present would be the same if Andrew Luck was on this roster?
Now granted, having the pick and knowing what to do with it are two different things. While my faith in the current administration is waning, at some point we’re going to have to bite the bullet and try to go all in, lest we remain in the 4-6 win purgatory that has marked the Brown’s return. Not bad enough to get the best talent, not good enough to develop potential.
I disagree about Pettine being a good coach. He makes remedial mistakes and always attempts to outthink the opponent and overanalyze. I’ve said it before – it’s a simple game. It doesn’t need complicated
At the end of half 1 vs Baltimore he let time run down rather than utilizing his timeouts to get the ball back to score.
At the end of half 1 against Denver he did the same thing – rather than having the ball back with 55 seconds on the clock and 2 timeouts on our own 41 – we had 18 seconds with 3 timeouts. An extra 37 seconds could’ve resulted in a FG.
The stupidity to go for 2 at the end of the game is unforgivable. It’s a mistake that should’ve never been made in the first place.
As for Farmer – his talent has been awful. At the same time – is it all the talent or the coaching? With Manziel we all knew it was Haslam and it was a terrible – wasted reach of a 6th round pick. Throw that out.
Gilbert was basically a consensus “best corner in the draft.”
Erving was another consensus 1st round pick.My point with these 2 is – is it the talent or the inability of the coaching to get the most out of the talent?
I personally think both guys are worthless at this point. that said – it would be a huge mistake to fire either of them. The only way this team moves on is by riding out their contracts and just not renewing them – this let’s Haslam prove to real talent that he’s willing to see the plan through.
There are many aspects to coaching. What encourages me about Pettine is that he seems to be able to get the most out of his talent (which honestly is practically non-existent considering the best player on the team is suspended). Now, I will not disagree with you that Pettine is a poor game manager, but he is inexperienced and still learning, much the way a young QB does.
I would point to the changes in our defense this year over last if you question his coaching ability though. When Pettine was calling the plays on defense last year we were the 9th best scoring defense. Without him calling the defensive plays we rank 27th (with an improved roster).
Now, don’t get me wrong. I’m not saying Pettine is a great coach. I’m not even saying he’s a good coach. I’m saying he’s not the worst coach I’ve ever seen, he’s certainly not the worst coach the Browns have had, and I have seen flashes of potential. While I understand your frustration (especially after Sunday’s loss to the Rams), I think you’re overreacting just a tad. With the exception of the Rams and Jets losses, this team has been very competitive.
We don’t disagree on everything though. I think it’s a fact that for us to have any chance at getting a respectable coach in here Pettine & Farmer will have to be allowed to “play out their contracts”, so to speak, regardless of where the record stands after this season. The Chud/Banner/Lombardi debacle was a Front Office faux pas that will not soon be forgotten around the league.
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