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Ball velocity numbers (MPH) from the Combine:
60 – Mahomes
59 – Webb
56 – Kizer
55 – Trubisky, Evans
53 – Peterman, Kaaya
49 – Watson— Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler) March 10, 2017
In comparison, last year’s results:
Paxton Lynch, Memphis 59
Jared Goff, California 58
Carson Wentz, North Dakota State 57
Christian Hackenberg, Penn State 56
Joel Stave, Wisconsin 56
Jacoby Brissett, North Carolina State 56
Josh Woodrum, Liberty 56
Cody Kessler, Southern Cal 55
Brandon Allen, Arkansas 55
Trevone Boykin, TCU 55
Dak Prescott, Mississippi State 54
Nate Sudfeld, Indiana 54
Kevin Hogan, Stanford 53
Brandon Doughty, Western Kentucky 53
Vernon Adams, Oregon 53
Jeff Driskel, Louisana Tech 52
Connor Cook, Michigan State 50
IMO this makes Watson UNDRAFTABLE and explains his HIGH INT numbers.
This along with everything else known…..IMO Trubisky…Kizer Mahomes are the top 3 and in that order.
http://cloudassetserver.com/STL/posts/185/sp_04_976x0.jpg
This graph also shows Kessler has no issue with arm strength like people want to believe.
when he is inside throwing in a dome at the combine you would be correct.
http://cloudassetserver.com/STL/posts/185/sp_04_976x0.jpg
This graph also shows Kessler has no issue with arm strength like people want to believe.
when he is inside throwing in a dome at the combine you would be correct.
Same velocity as Trubitsky.
Freedom!!!
trubisky throws a tighter ball than kesseler.
I wish they had a chart of rpms on the the throws. The guys that spin it faster cut thru the wind easier
http://cloudassetserver.com/STL/posts/185/sp_04_976x0.jpg
Honestly, I don’t put much stock in these numbers. If this were baseball, where the guy gets all the time in the world to throw every time with perfect form, than sure. These numbers are great.
But in football, that never happens. QBs have to set, reset, reset, now throw quick before their killed. Very few QBs should ever struggle with ATM strength if they could set, wind up, and throw every play. NFL arm strength is more about how quick they deliver, how much do they lose when they have to rush it or imorovise?
Throwing footballs in perfect conditions with no rushers is a good way to make a uniform test, but it doesn’t translate well to the field.
Honestly, I don’t put much stock in these numbers. If this were baseball, where the guy gets all the time in the world to throw every time with perfect form, than sure. These numbers are great.
But in football, that never happens. QBs have to set, reset, reset, now throw quick before their killed. Very few QBs should ever struggle with ATM strength if they could set, wind up, and throw every play. NFL arm strength is more about how quick they deliver, how much do they lose when they have to rush it or imorovise?
Throwing footballs in perfect conditions with no rushers is a good way to make a uniform test, but it doesn’t translate well to the field.Ever see one of those signs you must be this tall to ride this ride? This is what this is. There is a minimum threshold in a near perfect environment which need to meet as a draft-able QB when you throw the ball.
Watson for instance FAILED to meet that bar and is off most of the NFL teams board as a QB.
http://cloudassetserver.com/STL/posts/185/sp_04_976x0.jpg
It also shows guys with the way strong arms don’t translate all that well. More than likely because they rely on it instead of anticipation.
Freedom!!!
And the season of overthinking things is in full swing (I don’t like Watson, but not because of this).
There is no single stat that is a predictor of NFL success in QB’s. None.
This chart was interesting but I’m not sure there’s a correlation. Statistically I can poke many holes in it. Which passes were they measuring? How do we know they were throwing as hard as they could? Is the number the highest velocity of all their passes at the combine? If Mahomes tossed one magical pass at 60 but the rest of his passes were 45 mph ducks how is that accurate? Why choose groupings of <53mph, 54mph, 55-56mph, and >57mph? Why lump in 55-56 together? If I’m grading QB’s solely by that graph, I rule out everyone who threw below 55, and everyone who threw above 56. Passers throwing above 56mph only had a 14.2% chance of being a long term QB in the league. That doesn’t seem to agree with the narrative that they’re trying to show.
Ever see one of those signs you must be this tall to ride this ride? This is what this is. There is a minimum threshold in a near perfect environment which need to meet as a draft-able QB when you throw the ball.
Watson for instance FAILED to meet that bar and is off most of the NFL teams board as a QB.At first glance, that slcertainly seems to be the case. But as Ice pointed out, this graph raises some questions. The 3 that i have mainly are:
1.) is this a new thing? I’ve never heard of it bein measured before. The data doesn’t go back far.
2.) the table of starting QBs raises more questions than answers. It should total up to AT LEAST 32, but it’s about half that. So, I’m wondering which QBs this is factoring in. If it’s a new test and there’s no data for older QBs, maybe that explains it right there.
3.). If have to know more about the procedure. Is it one throw? An average of 5? 10? I’m surprised Watson is so far below the rest, and a flawed method could explain that. Like Ice said, if it’s just the max, maybe Watson just didn’t throw a tigh spiral on that attempt. If it’s 5 throws and none were spirals, that could be a problem too.
I agree with your analogy of the “must be this tall to ride” marker, Im just more curious than anything about where this data comes from.
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