It’s almost time for seven rounds of roulette – otherwise known as the NFL draft. This edition is my longhand version, including three rounds of draft picks for every team – including compensatory picks. As with most of my mock drafts, this one will not include any trades. It was tough enough trying to guess who’s going to trade and when for one single round, much less three.
Here’s something else to think about. In spite of what the respected draft sites claim, there are very few years in which the talent pool is loaded with what NFL teams will grade out as “first round talent”. A good year for the NFL is having more than twenty-five in any given draft. Is this one of those years? It’s hard to say for certain, but all indications appear to be that it’s probably not.
ROUND ONE
Jameis Winston – QB – Florida State
When all is said and done, Head Coach Lovie Smith will want to have “Mr. Crab Legs” as his quarterback of the future. The organization will also hire a full-time bodyguard/babysitter/personal advisor to keep an eye on him when he’s not at the Buccaneers training facility. The only real question that remains is, “Has ownership really signed off on Winston or are they merely playing the silly season game of information and misinformation?”
Leonard Williams – DT – USC
Barring a trade of nearly epic proportions, I suspect that the Titans will be content taking the best player in the entire draft off the board here; allowing second year quarterback Zach Mettenberger and his sixth round rookie contract salary run the offense.
Donte Fowler Jr. – OLB – Florida
Edge rushers are a valuable commodity in this league, and the Jags get the best one in the draft.
Kevin White – WR – West Virginia
As long as the owner’s last name is Davis, the Raiders will continue to draft by the stopwatch; thus giving second year quarterback Derek Carr a deadly weapon with the potential to score any time he touches the football.
Vic Beasley – OLB – Clemson
If there are no trades up to this point and the first four picks are what I’m currently showing, then the Redskins will be in a position to trade down with a team that desperately needs a quarterback and get value in doing so. It’s at this point where I believe the Cleveland Browns could be a potential player in such a trade involving their two first round picks. If not, then Washington will most likely grab a pass rusher early and address their offensive issues later on. Beasley becomes Brian Orakpo’s replacement from day one.
Marcus Mariota – QB – Oregon
I’m not totally convinced that new Head Coach Todd Bowles is content with the current group of quarterbacks on the Jets roster. The team’s off-season bolstering of the WR position indicates to me that they’re not finished addressing the offensive side of the football. While Mariota is far from being a finished product, he has the character traits that this year’s projected first overall pick is severely lacking.
Amari Cooper – WR – Alabama
This is where it starts to get tough. ‘Da-Bears traded away Brandon Marshall, so they need another starting receiver. However, their defense against the run was among the league’s worst last season. In the end, Chicago will most likely stay true to their board. I have to do the same in my mock, so starting quarterback Jay Cutler gets another weapon. That said, they could just as easily take a run-stuffing nose tackle with this pick and take a receiver in one of the subsequent rounds.
Randy Gregory – DE/OLB – Nebraska
Positive drug test results for marijuana could possibly cause Gregory to fall out of the top ten. Fortunately for him, Atlanta needs a pass rusher, so they’ll take one that was very effective as a collegiate but will need to add significant muscle mass as a professional.
Brandon Scherff – OT – Iowa
The Giants O-line play was horrible last season. Enough said.
La’el Collins – OT – LSU
With a new starting quarterback on the roster, the Rams will once again attempt to protect their investment by giving him a “big ugly” up front. With his demeanor, Collins would be best suited to start out as a guard and move to tackle later in his career after becoming better accustomed to the speed of the NFL game.
DeVante Parker – WR – Louisville
With two of the top three receivers already off the board, the Vikings will reunite second year starting quarterback Teddy Bridgewater with his favorite college receiving target.
Danny Shelton – DT – Washington
With the top three receivers all off the board, Head Coach Mike Pettine will continue to bend GM Ray Farmer’s ear about building a premier defense for his team; and that starts with being stout against the run. Tipping the scales at well over 330 lbs, Shelton is also surprisingly agile for a man of his sizeable girth. There’s also the possibility of Cleveland opting for a pass rusher, whether Shelton is taken off the board or not. At the end of the day, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Browns first two picks ended up being on the defensive side of the football. However, if the first four picks end up as shown here; then there could be a trade with either the Redskins or Jets involving picks 12 and 19 for the rights to select Marcus Mariota.
Shane Ray – DE/OLB – Missouri
While the Saints traded away Pro Bowl TE Jimmy Campbell, I think it’s highly unlikely that they’ll address that position this early. Their defense needs a lot of help, particularly along the front seven.
Trae Waynes – CB – Michigan State
The Fins added receiving TE Jordan Cameron to their offense, so I think they’ll take either a cornerback or an O-lineman. Between the two areas of need, Waynes has the higher grade at this point.
Alvin Dupree – DE/OLB – Kentucky
Since 1951, there have been only thirteenUniversity of Kentucky football playersselected in the first round of the NFL draft. Their most recent history includes DTDewayne Robertson in 2003 by the Jets (fourth overall) and QBTim Couch in 1999 by the expansion Cleveland Browns (first overall). Alvin Dupree with be the fourteenth. Given the 49ers need at linebacker, this pick is pretty much a slam dunk if he’s still on the board.
Landon Collins – SS – Alabama
The addition of Collins solidifies the back end of the Texans defense.
Malcolm Brown – DT – Texas
Brown’s versatility allows him to play anywhere along the Chargers D-line.
Jalen Strong – WR – Arizona State
A replacement for Dwayne Bowe must be found to help a WR group that caught zero touchdowns last season.
Cameron Erving – OC – Florida State (from Buffalo)
Alex Mack can opt out of his current contract after this season, so I suspect that the Browns will make a proactive move to preserve integrity along the O-line. Neither of the Browns first round picks are the “sexy” picks that fans will shout over, but they just might be the wise picks over the long haul. Another option here would be Oregon DE Arik Armstead, who would provide desperately needed pass rush.
Andrus Peat – OT – Stanford
There’s still the talk out there that the Eagles might still be in play to make a draft day move for the quarterback from Oregon, but I suspect that the organization will find the cost of such a move prohibitive and turn their focus on protecting Sam Bradford instead.
Arik Armstead – DE – Oregon
Speaking of players from Oregon, this kid could be a real pain in the neck to other teams within his division.
Kevin Johnson – CB – Wake Forest
The Steelers just might be well advised to take the best defensive player available regardless of position, although you can seldom go wrong by taking an O-lineman.
Ereck Flowers – OT – Miami (FL)
The Lions lost Ndamukong Suh and acquired Haloti Ngata this off-season, so I suspect they’ll focus on upgrading the O-line early in the draft.
Todd Gurley – RB – Georgia
This selection goes against one of the cardinal rules of drafting players which states, “Don’t draft a RB in the first round because (A) the return on investment is greater at other positions and (B) the longevity of players at the position is barely over 3 years. However, the Cardinals other top two needs wouldn’t be filled without reaching for a player. Thus, the Cards may be well advised to trade up or down – depending on what players they may covet. The only problem is if Gurley’s completely mended from his injury, then he’ll dominate at the NFL level.
Dorial Green-Beckham – WR – Oklahoma (via Missouri)
Lining up Green-Beckham opposite Kelvin Benjamin could make a WR tandem of epic proportion. His off-the-field issues are well publicized, so this acquisition could be quite volatile as well. Carolina brass will need to as the question, “Is the juice worth the squeeze?” As for me, I wouldn’t take this kid so early because of the baggage he brings with him; but I’m not an NFL general manager.
Melvin Gordon – RB – Wisconsin
The Ravens might even move up for Todd Gurley if GM Ozzie Newsome is bent on getting him. If not, then Gordon is a very nice consolation prize.
Eddie Goldman – DT – Florida State
As I’ve stated before, the Cowboys three top needs are along the defensive front seven. This Acquisition should help plug up the middle of the line.
Maxx Williams – TE – Minnesota
Peyton Manning will love this selection, as Williams is the best receiving TE in the draft.
Owamagbe Odighizuwa – DE – UCLA
The Colts are going to take the best defensive player available when they’re on the clock. Just don’t ask me to pronounce this kid’s name.
Marcus Peters – CB – Washington
The offense is fine, but the defense that needs some help. Here’s another best defensive player available pick.
TJ Clemmings – OT – Pittsburgh (from Seattle)
Although they’ve recently acquired Pro Bowlcenter Max Unger, the O-line still needs to be addressed. Clemmings can play either guard or tackle.
Jordan Phillips – DT – Oklahoma
Here’s a big run stuffer to fill one gap that Vince Wilfork used to fill for the Patriots.
ROUND TWO
Byron Jones – CB – Connecticut
Eli Harold – OLB – Virginia
Preston Smith – DE – Mississippi State
Jake Fisher – OT – Oregon
Shaq Thompson – OLB – Washington
AJ Cann – OG – South Carolina
Carl Davis – DT – Iowa
Danielle Hunter – DE – LSU
Breshad Perriman – WR – Central Florida
I love this kid’s speed, but his hands are going to drive his coaching staff nuts.
Sammie Coates – WR – Auburn
Benardrick McKinney – ILB – Mississippi State
This kid is big, mean and nasty. He can also play any of the four LB positions in a 3-4, but is best suited inside.
Eric Kendricks – ILB – UCLA
PJ Williams – CB – Florida State
Stephone Anthony – ILB – Clemson
DJ Humphries – OT – Florida
Nate Orchard – DE/OLB – Utah
Laken Tomlinson – OG – Duke
Jay Ajayi – RB – Boise State
Nelson Agholor – WR – USC
Eric Rowe – CB – Utah
Xavier Cooper – DT – Washington State
Quinten Rollins – CB – Miami (OH)
Mario Edwards Jr. – DE – Florida State
Hroniss Grasu – C – Oregon
Cody Prewitt – S – Mississippi
Devin Smith – WR – Ohio State
I really hate giving the Ratbirds this guy.
Michael Bennett – DT – Ohio State
Hau’oli Kiksha – OLB – Washington
Tre’ Jackson – OG – Florida State
Ty Sambrailo – OT – Colorado State
Phillip Dorsett – WR – Miami (FL)
Clive Walford – TE –Miami (FL)
I think the Hoodie will pair up a player like Walford with Rob Gronkowski. Remember, you heard it here first.
ROUND THREE
Ibraheim Campbell – S – Northwestern
Damarius Randall – S – Arizona State
Trey Flowers – DE – Arkansas
Paul Dawson – LB – TCU
Ronald Darby – CB – Florida State
Ali Marpet – OG – Hobart
Jalen Collins – CB – LSU
Grady Jarrett – DT – Clemson
Reese Dismukes – OC – Auburn
Ameer Abdulla – RB – Nebraska
Lorenzo Mauldin – OLB – Louisville
Here’s a guy that can rush the passer. Hopefully, he’ll last this long.
DJoun Smith – CB – Florida Atlantic (from Miami)
Arie Kouandjio – OG – Alabama
Brett Hundley – QB – UCLA
Rashad Greene – WR – Florida State
Devin Funchess – TE/WR – TSUN
Someone is going to take this kid with the thought that they can “coach him up”. The truth of the matter is that Funchess is a tall target with unreliable hands, a lack of drive and an overdeveloped sense of self-entitlement. Perhaps sliding to the third round will be his wake-up call, but I doubt it.
Daryl Williams – OT – Oklahoma
Alex Carter – CB – Stanford
Jaquiski Tartt – S – Samford
Derron Smith – S – Fresno State
Tyler Lockett – WR – Kansas State
Tre’ McBride – WR – William & Mary
David Johnson – RB – Northern Iowa
Duke Johnson – RB – Miami (FL)
Jeremy Langford – RB – Michigan State
Josh Shaw – CB – USC
John Miller – OG – Louisville
Cedric Ogbuehi – OT – Texas A&M
TJ Yeldon – RB – Alabama
The Trent Richardson experiment was a complete debacle, but that doesn’t stop Indy from taking his former team mate.
Marcus Hardison – DT – Arizona State
Denzel Perryman – ILB – Miami (FL)
David Cobb – RB – Minnesota
Justin Hardy – WR – East Carolina (compensatory pick)
Garrett Grayson – QB – Colorado State (compensatory pick)
Jordan Hicks – OLB – Texas (compensatory pick)
OTHER BROWNS PICKS:
111: Dezmin Lewis – WR – Central Arkansas
Small college prospect with a big body (6’-4”, 214 lbs.) and huge catching radius – particularly useful for when the Browns are in the red zone
115: Lynden Trail – DE – Norfolk State
Another athletic big body (6’-7”, 269 lbs.) that may start out as a pass rushing specialist
147: Nick O’Leary – TE –Florida State
The supposition is that O’Leary will serve more as an H-back type of TE, but he’s a very sure handed receiver
188: Mark Myers – QB – John Carroll
Prototypical size (6’-4”, 220 lbs.) left handed small college project with a big arm and touch on his throws
229: Justin Manton – K – Louisiana-Monroe
Phil Dawson isn’t walking through the doors at 76 Lou Groza Boulevard anytime soon
UNDRAFTED ROOKIE FREE AGENT POSSIBILITIES:
Brian Mihalik – DE – Boston College
Long bodied (6’-9”, 302 lbs.) project as pass rusher and FG block unit member
Trevor Pardula – P – Kansas
You always bring in a punter for competition and a possible practice squad assignment
Conner Neighbors – FB – LSU
They may not draft a FB this year, but they’ll bring in a warm body at the position
Deiontrez Mount – OLB – Louisville
Another big (6’-5”, 245 lbs.) athletic guy for the defense
Nick Perry – FS – Alabama
No DB’s drafted in my mock, but they’ll bring in two or three for a look-see
Damian Parms – SS – Florida Atlantic
Here’s another one for a look-see
Justin Coleman – CB – Tennessee
Top rated CB raked beyond number 257
Eric Lefeld – OT – Cincinnati
You always try to bring in one URFA O-lineman to develop on the practice squad
OBSERVATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS:
In the first three rounds I’ve got the Browns taking a run-stuffing defensive tackle, an O-lineman that can play any position and two big linebackers. Again I don’t have GM Ray Farmer selecting a receiver until at least the fourth round; and when I do it’s a big receiver that presents an immediate match-up problem for opposing defenses. As for Cameron Erving at nineteen . . . I mentioned earlier that starting center Alex Mack can opt out after the 2015-2016 season. Erving can compete for a starting job at guard or right tackle and then (if Mack bolts) he can slide into the starting center position. If one of the three top receivers fall to twelve, then I can see Farmer taking that player. Otherwise, I have to go with either a big DT or a pass rusher that comes off the edge. Considering that the Browns rushing defense was abysmal, I think they’ll take Shelton if he’s still on the board at twelve.
Considering the moves made during the free agency period, I’m convinced that Farmer is content with lining up Brian Hartline and Dwayne Bowe at the #1 and #2 receiver spots with Andrew Hawkins holding down the slot receiver spot. I’m also convinced that he envisions Rob Housler filling the shoes of the recently departed Jordan Cameron as the pass catching TE. If indeed Housler does this successfully, then Farmer will have saved the Browns some serious dollars on the salary cap over retaining Cameron; and payday will come in 2016 for Housler. I could just as easily have selected Alabama fullback Jalston Fowler in the fifth round instead of Nick O’Leary.
As for the selection of division III quarterback Mark Myers from John Carroll University . . . He’s 6’-4” tall and weighs 220 lbs., so he got good size for the position with a frame that can add muscle mass. He’s also accustomed to taking the snap from under center and making three, five and seven step drops. He has a bazooka for an arm, but can throw the football with touch. The left-handed quarterback also has excellent mechanics and is very good at making throws with anticipation. He’s a pocket passer that has the ability to buy time with his feet as protection starts to break down and find an open receiver. He’s also quite good at making pre-snap reads. The big knocks on him are (A) level of competition (B) he tends to stare down his receivers and (C) at times he hurries the play and doesn’t let it develop. Is he NFL ready right now? Of course not, but neither are any of the other quarterbacks in this draft. Myers is a kid with some talent that the coaching staff can develop while he spends a season on the practice squad and gets acclimated to the speed and terminology of the NFL game. The Browns are going to take a quarterback in this draft or make a trade for one on draft day. Barring any trades, this one makes the most sense because he has talent and experience in an NFL style offense, but he’s no immediate threat to any quarterback currently on the roster.