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My interest as piqued as for the rest…haven’t an F’ing clue
http://cloudassetserver.com/STL/posts/185/sp_04_976x0.jpg
Last season was bad. I mean, I can honestly say that it felt worse than 2008…watching a team that just went 10-6 completely crash and burn was rough.
Watching every week to see my team finally get a win was way worse. I hope I never see something like that again. Despite their refusal to call it a rebuild, that’s exactly what it is.
Still…there was something about last season that will always stick with me, something that kept me believing in this team: seeing Joe Thomas in tears after getting that win was a pretty damn emotional moment. That was enough for me to believe in Hue. Because I gotta tell you, there were some moments that I wanted to strangle that man. Still, there’s no denying he’s the right guy for the job.
As far as the front office goes, the fact that we have so many draft picks is great, as is how they used their heads to acquire those picks. But it’s not just that…they addressed the glaring weakness of this team and fixed it in a major way. I highly doubt we play five quarterbacks next year. Couple that with the Osweiler trade (that pissed off a lot of football guys), and yeah, I could say that these guys know what they’re doing. I think they drafted decent last year, and provided they don’t fuck up and pass on impact players, this should be an even better haul.
I will add that we may not get our QB of the future in this draft, or from another team’s roster, and I’m ok with that…as long as we continue to address our other weaknesses.
So, after all of that, my answer is definitely ‘yes, I’m buying in’. I expect to see a much better team come September.
I’m buying in completely, with one big caveat. They HAVE to address QB this year, no excuses.
Last year they chose not too, and I agreed with that move, but you don’t get 2 years of free passes. If they don’t get a QB, it won’t matter how good the rest of their moves are.
I’ve been in since day one. Analytics is the future. It will self correct and improve with time as the data set grows. This regime may not win the championship, but it will do things that no other team has done before and it will ultimately win more games than it loses, given a long enough time frame.
818 mph. 13,723 feet. 3 second burn.
https://youtu.be/hy-3bb1Nqy0I don’t share your enthusiasm for the approach.
I’m open minded though, and I’m all for doing things differently. As I have stated previously, Every time someone goes against the grain, particularly in sports, they are derided and mocked and ridiculed.
Unless it works.
If it works……..holy hell, it’s like a cascade of people trying their best to play catch up, and mimic the way they did it.
The Browns have put themselves on that ledge now, and it’s only going to end 1 of 2 ways. Either the derision was completely justified and we have to spend years and years trying to regroup and do it all over again….. or, and I have to say I’m in the camp of the “or” and the latter here……..it works. And Everyone goes “oooooooooooooooooooooooooooohhh shit, how did we NOT see that?”
I’m being honest, I’m not sure if these guys are sneaking up on the NFL out of nowhere as total geniuses that will snatch up 3 Superbowls before they even have a chance to see what it is that we’re doing, or if we’re headed to at minimum 5 more years of 1-15 before we can even talk about climbing out of it.
I love math. I’m pretty smart when it comes to it, at least compared to your average bear, so I can appreciate the logic. But at the same time, what we’re doing isn’t subtle. And we’re not being shy about it. We’re in a full-blown “here it fucking is, back up, watch this” superpower hour watch-this-rocket, fucker!!!!- level of doing things.
Hey, it’s hard not to be pumped about that. It’s a fucking breath of fresh air to see not only such an approach, but the Browns……the BROOOOOOOOOOOWWWWNS, are the ones leading that charge. I hope we set precedents and shake shit all the way down to the core. I do, I really really do.
But there is also the possibility that the best laid plans never come to pass. In which case. Wow……….years. It would take years, most likely a decade or more, to recover from this if it doesn’t work.
Please pardon my pessimism, but, I’m just saying, we ARE the Browns, so, I feel it’s warranted.
But, if I’m being forced to answer my own question….. Yeah. Yeah I’m buying in. I haven’t felt this good about a front office, or a coach, or both at the same time, as I do right now. I think this plan is working. I think the approach is sound. It’s foreign to me in many ways, but I’m okay with that. I like new things. Let’s pave a new path man. Let’s get some Manifest Destiny up in here.
With math!
I don’t share your enthusiasm for the approach.
I’m open minded though, and I’m all for doing things differently. As I have stated previously, Every time someone goes against the grain, particularly in sports, they are derided and mocked and ridiculed.
Unless it works.
If it works……..holy hell, it’s like a cascade of people trying their best to play catch up, and mimic the way they did it.
As Neil deGrasse Tyson has said, the great thing about science is that it works whether you believe in it or not. Every industry from trucking to football likes to believe it is special. That it’s workers, through their experience and hard work, gain some magical insight into their industry that “outsiders” will simply never understand. Analytics, or more accurately, Data Science, is giving us technologies that were the stuff of science fiction just 20 years ago. Automated assembly lines, self driving cars and trucks, reusable rocket boosters that safely land themselves.
I’m being honest, I’m not sure if these guys are sneaking up on the NFL out of nowhere as total geniuses that will snatch up 3 Superbowls before they even have a chance to see what it is that we’re doing, or if we’re headed to at minimum 5 more years of 1-15 before we can even talk about climbing out of it.
Once successful, the Browns will be dominant for more than 3 years. Consider this graph:
Notice that we have the number 2 (a constant) raised to a power of X in all three cases. If X represents time, the Y value is a function of time. Look specifically now at 2 raised to the X power vs. 2 raised to the (X-3) power. Now look specifically at the X coordinate 0. 2 raised to the X at X=0 is 1. 2 raised to the (X-3) at X=0 is 0.125. That’s a difference between the Browns and the rest of the league at time 0 (assuming the Browns increase in analytical knowledge follows the form x raised to the second). If you doubt that the Browns can maintain such a curve, consider this graph of computational power:
Back to the original graph now. At X=1, 2 raised to the X is equal to 2, while 2 raised to the (x-3) is 0.25, giving us a difference at X=1 of 1.75. Even though the “knowledge curve” is the same in both cases (that is, if the graphs are overlaid they are identical), the difference in knowledge between the Browns and the rest of the league will continue to grow. Think about what this means for business. This is why it is so difficult to displace the current leader in a market segment. Why Facebook and not Myspace? Why Microsoft and not Linux? Why Google and not Ask Jeeves/Bing/dogpile? Not only are you trying to hit a moving target, you’re trying to hit a moving target that has an ever increasing “gap” between where you’re at and where they’re going. Bridging that gap can only occur through paradigm altering shifts in understanding. No one could supplant Rand McNally as a map maker, then the GPS came along. That’s what the Browns front office is doing. They’re inventing a GPS in a world that relies on maps.
I love math. I’m pretty smart when it comes to it, at least compared to your average bear, so I can appreciate the logic. But at the same time, what we’re doing isn’t subtle. And we’re not being shy about it. We’re in a full-blown “here it fucking is, back up, watch this” superpower hour watch-this-rocket, fucker!!!!- level of doing things.
The Browns aren’t looking at refining the current scouting and free agency processes, they are completely rewriting them with discrete mathematics. It’s not just a different way of looking at football, it’s a different way of looking at Math. They’re not putting this out there so everyone else in the league can see what they’re doing (and follow along if they so choose), they’re putting it out there to attract talent, people who devote themselves to solving the most complicated problems in the world. Not just for money, but to prove that they can. Probability density and distribution, algorithms and theories of computation, logic and Boolean algebra: they’re constructing a mathematical football “universe” such that, the more unknowns that are quantified, your probability for success is greatly increased. It takes time to quantify the unknowns and integrate what is known into your database, but once it occurs, once calculations are automated, you can determine the probability of a player being a super star based off of historical data ranging from his physical measurements to his situational intelligence (How well does he defend passes over his right vs. his left shoulder? how does he react to play action? does he maintain gap assignments? etc.).
Please pardon my pessimism, but, I’m just saying, we ARE the Browns, so, I feel it’s warranted.
And this is science, so take heart. It has eliminated diseases, put a man on the moon, and put the world wide web at our fingertips.
While it may take time, and there will be misteps along the way (correlation does not imply causation and sometimes it leads us down the wrong path), if Haslam sticks with this rigorous methodology, the Browns will be a franchise for the Ages.
818 mph. 13,723 feet. 3 second burn.
https://youtu.be/hy-3bb1Nqy0We are innovating, that’s for sure. It’s clear the goal is to build a franchise that will win continuously in about 3 years or so. I think they’re well on their way to that end. All we need is a QB, unfortunately no amount of statistics can make one of those appear out of thin air. There are about 8 awesome QB’s in the world. You have to be really lucky to get one of them.
Being really smart can’t hurt though.
I don’t share your enthusiasm for the approach.
I’m open minded though, and I’m all for doing things differently. As I have stated previously, Every time someone goes against the grain, particularly in sports, they are derided and mocked and ridiculed.
Unless it works.
If it works……..holy hell, it’s like a cascade of people trying their best to play catch up, and mimic the way they did it.
As Neil deGrasse Tyson has said, the great thing about science is that it works whether you believe in it or not. Every industry from trucking to football likes to believe it is special. That it’s workers, through their experience and hard work, gain some magical insight into their industry that “outsiders” will simply never understand. Analytics, or more accurately, Data Science, is giving us technologies that were the stuff of science fiction just 20 years ago. Automated assembly lines, self driving cars and trucks, reusable rocket boosters that safely land themselves.
I’m being honest, I’m not sure if these guys are sneaking up on the NFL out of nowhere as total geniuses that will snatch up 3 Superbowls before they even have a chance to see what it is that we’re doing, or if we’re headed to at minimum 5 more years of 1-15 before we can even talk about climbing out of it.
Once successful, the Browns will be dominant for more than 3 years. Consider this graph:
Notice that we have the number 2 (a constant) raised to a power of X in all three cases. If X represents time, the Y value is a function of time. Look specifically now at 2 raised to the X power vs. 2 raised to the (X-3) power. Now look specifically at the X coordinate 0. 2 raised to the X at X=0 is 1. 2 raised to the (X-3) at X=0 is 0.125. That’s a difference between the Browns and the rest of the league at time 0 (assuming the Browns increase in analytical knowledge follows the form x raised to the second). If you doubt that the Browns can maintain such a curve, consider this graph of computational power:
Back to the original graph now. At X=1, 2 raised to the X is equal to 2, while 2 raised to the (x-3) is 0.25, giving us a difference at X=1 of 1.75. Even though the “knowledge curve” is the same in both cases (that is, if the graphs are overlaid they are identical), the difference in knowledge between the Browns and the rest of the league will continue to grow. Think about what this means for business. This is why it is so difficult to displace the current leader in a market segment. Why Facebook and not Myspace? Why Microsoft and not Linux? Why Google and not Ask Jeeves/Bing/dogpile? Not only are you trying to hit a moving target, you’re trying to hit a moving target that has an ever increasing “gap” between where you’re at and where they’re going. Bridging that gap can only occur through paradigm altering shifts in understanding. No one could supplant Rand McNally as a map maker, then the GPS came along. That’s what the Browns front office is doing. They’re inventing a GPS in a world that relies on maps.
I love math. I’m pretty smart when it comes to it, at least compared to your average bear, so I can appreciate the logic. But at the same time, what we’re doing isn’t subtle. And we’re not being shy about it. We’re in a full-blown “here it fucking is, back up, watch this” superpower hour watch-this-rocket, fucker!!!!- level of doing things.
The Browns aren’t looking at refining the current scouting and free agency processes, they are completely rewriting them with discrete mathematics. It’s not just a different way of looking at football, it’s a different way of looking at Math. They’re not putting this out there so everyone else in the league can see what they’re doing (and follow along if they so choose), they’re putting it out there to attract talent, people who devote themselves to solving the most complicated problems in the world. Not just for money, but to prove that they can. Probability density and distribution, algorithms and theories of computation, logic and Boolean algebra: they’re constructing a mathematical football “universe” such that, the more unknowns that are quantified, your probability for success is greatly increased. It takes time to quantify the unknowns and integrate what is known into your database, but once it occurs, once calculations are automated, you can determine the probability of a player being a super star based off of historical data ranging from his physical measurements to his situational intelligence (How well does he defend passes over his right vs. his left shoulder? how does he react to play action? does he maintain gap assignments? etc.).
Please pardon my pessimism, but, I’m just saying, we ARE the Browns, so, I feel it’s warranted.
And this is science, so take heart. It has eliminated diseases, put a man on the moon, and put the world wide web at our fingertips.
While it may take time, and there will be misteps along the way (correlation does not imply causation and sometimes it leads us down the wrong path), if Haslam sticks with this rigorous methodology, the Browns will be a franchise for the Ages.https://3sigmaathlete.com/rankings/ And then there is SPARQ/CHALK
Basically Draft prospects that are BOTH highly athletic and Productive.
Most of last years draft board seem set by this as I recall.
For reference: http://www.cleveland.com/browns/index.ssf/2016/05/how_sparq_measurements_may_hav.html
http://cloudassetserver.com/STL/posts/185/sp_04_976x0.jpg
I have no idea what the hell is going on here on this graph, but I love it.
Go Browns!Right! Best I can figure, we’re going to not only win the next three Super Bowls, but we are finally going to end world hunger and discover nuclear fusion.
That’s the greatest graph ever.
The approach is actually similar to the money ball approach. It is just a different of scenario and how to use and abuse the system. At the end of the day, the difference in baseball and football is drafting. These guys need to draft talent. Last year was a scheme –
you are in last place and every position is analyzed.
What this means to the team – they know they cannot bring in the best free agents. They know this team has been bad and need drastic help. What they have done so far is fill spots with guys who have some strengths in one area. In another area, we will fail. It looks like we will be a run first team going in the future. We resigned the kicker who has had been pretty consistent. So we will start playing field position. Makes the run game so much more important.
The great passing QB’s of the league are indeed diminishing. The Browns will look for a guy with size who may not have the biggest arm but someone who can step up in the pocket and hit a 9 yard slant….watch…this is something osweiler has been good at.
Am I sold on the plan?
No.
Drafting players will sell me.
But this is different – there is a plan. Its nice to see some strategy.
Hue Jackson is a loser.
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