[BillWunkle]

It’s almost time for seven rounds of roulette – otherwise known as the NFL draft. This edition is my longhand version, including three rounds of draft picks for every team – including compensatory picks. As with most of my mock drafts, this one will not include any trades. It was tough enough trying to guess who’s going to trade and when for one single round, much less three.

Here’s something else to think about. In spite of what the respected draft sites claim, there are very few years in which the talent pool is loaded with what NFL teams will grade out as “first round talent”. A good year for the NFL is having more than twenty-five in any given draft. Is this one of those years? It’s hard to say for certain, but all indications appear to be that it’s probably not.

ROUND ONE

 

Jameis Winston – QB – Florida State

When all is said and done, Head Coach Lovie Smith will want to have “Mr. Crab Legs” as his quarterback of the future. The organization will also hire a full-time bodyguard/babysitter/personal advisor to keep an eye on him when he’s not at the Buccaneers training facility. The only real question that remains is, “Has ownership really signed off on Winston or are they merely playing the silly season game of information and misinformation?”

Leonard Williams – DT – USC

Barring a trade of nearly epic proportions, I suspect that the Titans will be content taking the best player in the entire draft off the board here; allowing second year quarterback Zach Mettenberger and his sixth round rookie contract salary run the offense.

Donte Fowler Jr. – OLB – Florida

Edge rushers are a valuable commodity in this league, and the Jags get the best one in the draft.

Kevin White – WR – West Virginia

As long as the owner’s last name is Davis, the Raiders will continue to draft by the stopwatch; thus giving second year quarterback Derek Carr a deadly weapon with the potential to score any time he touches the football.

Vic Beasley – OLB – Clemson

If there are no trades up to this point and the first four picks are what I’m currently showing, then the Redskins will be in a position to trade down with a team that desperately needs a quarterback and get value in doing so. It’s at this point where I believe the Cleveland Browns could be a potential player in such a trade involving their two first round picks. If not, then Washington will most likely grab a pass rusher early and address their offensive issues later on. Beasley becomes Brian Orakpo’s replacement from day one.

Marcus Mariota – QB – Oregon

I’m not totally convinced that new Head Coach Todd Bowles is content with the current group of quarterbacks on the Jets roster. The team’s off-season bolstering of the WR position indicates to me that they’re not finished addressing the offensive side of the football. While Mariota is far from being a finished product, he has the character traits that this year’s projected first overall pick is severely lacking.

Amari Cooper – WR – Alabama

This is where it starts to get tough. ‘Da-Bears traded away Brandon Marshall, so they need another starting receiver. However, their defense against the run was among the league’s worst last season. In the end, Chicago will most likely stay true to their board. I have to do the same in my mock, so starting quarterback Jay Cutler gets another weapon. That said, they could just as easily take a run-stuffing nose tackle with this pick and take a receiver in one of the subsequent rounds.

Randy Gregory – DE/OLB – Nebraska

Positive drug test results for marijuana could possibly cause Gregory to fall out of the top ten. Fortunately for him, Atlanta needs a pass rusher, so they’ll take one that was very effective as a collegiate but will need to add significant muscle mass as a professional.

Brandon Scherff – OT – Iowa

The Giants O-line play was horrible last season. Enough said.

La’el Collins – OT – LSU

With a new starting quarterback on the roster, the Rams will once again attempt to protect their investment by giving him a “big ugly” up front. With his demeanor, Collins would be best suited to start out as a guard and move to tackle later in his career after becoming better accustomed to the speed of the NFL game.

DeVante Parker – WR – Louisville

With two of the top three receivers already off the board, the Vikings will reunite second year starting quarterback Teddy Bridgewater with his favorite college receiving target.

Danny Shelton – DT – Washington

With the top three receivers all off the board, Head Coach Mike Pettine will continue to bend GM Ray Farmer’s ear about building a premier defense for his team; and that starts with being stout against the run. Tipping the scales at well over 330 lbs, Shelton is also surprisingly agile for a man of his sizeable girth. There’s also the possibility of Cleveland opting for a pass rusher, whether Shelton is taken off the board or not. At the end of the day, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Browns first two picks ended up being on the defensive side of the football. However, if the first four picks end up as shown here; then there could be a trade with either the Redskins or Jets involving picks 12 and 19 for the rights to select Marcus Mariota.

Shane Ray – DE/OLB – Missouri

While the Saints traded away Pro Bowl TE Jimmy Campbell, I think it’s highly unlikely that they’ll address that position this early. Their defense needs a lot of help, particularly along the front seven.

Trae Waynes – CB – Michigan State

The Fins added receiving TE Jordan Cameron to their offense, so I think they’ll take either a cornerback or an O-lineman. Between the two areas of need, Waynes has the higher grade at this point.

Alvin Dupree – DE/OLB – Kentucky

Since 1951, there have been only thirteenUniversity of Kentucky football playersselected in the first round of the NFL draft. Their most recent history includes DTDewayne Robertson in 2003 by the Jets (fourth overall) and QBTim Couch in 1999 by the expansion Cleveland Browns (first overall). Alvin Dupree with be the fourteenth. Given the 49ers need at linebacker, this pick is pretty much a slam dunk if he’s still on the board.

Landon Collins – SS – Alabama

The addition of Collins solidifies the back end of the Texans defense.

Malcolm Brown – DT – Texas

Brown’s versatility allows him to play anywhere along the Chargers D-line.

Jalen Strong – WR – Arizona State

A replacement for Dwayne Bowe must be found to help a WR group that caught zero touchdowns last season.

Cameron Erving – OC – Florida State (from Buffalo)

Alex Mack can opt out of his current contract after this season, so I suspect that the Browns will make a proactive move to preserve integrity along the O-line. Neither of the Browns first round picks are the “sexy” picks that fans will shout over, but they just might be the wise picks over the long haul. Another option here would be Oregon DE Arik Armstead, who would provide desperately needed pass rush.

Andrus Peat – OT – Stanford

There’s still the talk out there that the Eagles might still be in play to make a draft day move for the quarterback from Oregon, but I suspect that the organization will find the cost of such a move prohibitive and turn their focus on protecting Sam Bradford instead.

Arik Armstead – DE – Oregon

Speaking of players from Oregon, this kid could be a real pain in the neck to other teams within his division.

Kevin Johnson – CB – Wake Forest

The Steelers just might be well advised to take the best defensive player available regardless of position, although you can seldom go wrong by taking an O-lineman.

Ereck Flowers – OT – Miami (FL)

The Lions lost Ndamukong Suh and acquired Haloti Ngata this off-season, so I suspect they’ll focus on upgrading the O-line early in the draft.

Todd Gurley – RB – Georgia

This selection goes against one of the cardinal rules of drafting players which states, “Don’t draft a RB in the first round because (A) the return on investment is greater at other positions and (B) the longevity of players at the position is barely over 3 years. However, the Cardinals other top two needs wouldn’t be filled without reaching for a player. Thus, the Cards may be well advised to trade up or down – depending on what players they may covet. The only problem is if Gurley’s completely mended from his injury, then he’ll dominate at the NFL level.

Dorial Green-Beckham – WR – Oklahoma (via Missouri)

Lining up Green-Beckham opposite Kelvin Benjamin could make a WR tandem of epic proportion. His off-the-field issues are well publicized, so this acquisition could be quite volatile as well. Carolina brass will need to as the question, “Is the juice worth the squeeze?” As for me, I wouldn’t take this kid so early because of the baggage he brings with him; but I’m not an NFL general manager.

Melvin Gordon – RB – Wisconsin

The Ravens might even move up for Todd Gurley if GM Ozzie Newsome is bent on getting him. If not, then Gordon is a very nice consolation prize.

Eddie Goldman – DT – Florida State

As I’ve stated before, the Cowboys three top needs are along the defensive front seven. This Acquisition should help plug up the middle of the line.

Maxx Williams – TE – Minnesota

Peyton Manning will love this selection, as Williams is the best receiving TE in the draft.

Owamagbe Odighizuwa – DE – UCLA

The Colts are going to take the best defensive player available when they’re on the clock. Just don’t ask me to pronounce this kid’s name.

Marcus Peters – CB – Washington

The offense is fine, but the defense that needs some help. Here’s another best defensive player available pick.

TJ Clemmings – OT – Pittsburgh (from Seattle)

Although they’ve recently acquired Pro Bowlcenter Max Unger, the O-line still needs to be addressed. Clemmings can play either guard or tackle.

Jordan Phillips – DT – Oklahoma

Here’s a big run stuffer to fill one gap that Vince Wilfork used to fill for the Patriots.

 

ROUND TWO

 

Byron Jones – CB – Connecticut

Eli Harold – OLB – Virginia

Preston Smith – DE – Mississippi State

Jake Fisher – OT – Oregon

Shaq Thompson – OLB – Washington

AJ Cann – OG – South Carolina

Carl Davis – DT – Iowa

Danielle Hunter – DE – LSU

Breshad Perriman – WR – Central Florida

I love this kid’s speed, but his hands are going to drive his coaching staff nuts.

Sammie Coates – WR – Auburn

Benardrick McKinney – ILB – Mississippi State

This kid is big, mean and nasty. He can also play any of the four LB positions in a 3-4, but is best suited inside.

Eric Kendricks – ILB – UCLA

PJ Williams – CB – Florida State

Stephone Anthony – ILB – Clemson

DJ Humphries – OT – Florida

Nate Orchard – DE/OLB – Utah

Laken Tomlinson – OG – Duke

Jay Ajayi – RB – Boise State

Nelson Agholor – WR – USC

Eric Rowe – CB – Utah

Xavier Cooper – DT – Washington State

Quinten Rollins – CB – Miami (OH)

Mario Edwards Jr. – DE – Florida State

Hroniss Grasu – C – Oregon

Cody Prewitt – S – Mississippi

Devin Smith – WR – Ohio State

I really hate giving the Ratbirds this guy.

Michael Bennett – DT – Ohio State

Hau’oli Kiksha – OLB – Washington

Tre’ Jackson – OG – Florida State

Ty Sambrailo – OT – Colorado State

Phillip Dorsett – WR – Miami (FL)

Clive Walford – TE –Miami (FL)

I think the Hoodie will pair up a player like Walford with Rob Gronkowski. Remember, you heard it here first.

 

ROUND THREE

 

Ibraheim Campbell – S – Northwestern

Damarius Randall – S – Arizona State

Trey Flowers – DE – Arkansas

Paul Dawson – LB – TCU

Ronald Darby – CB – Florida State

Ali Marpet – OG – Hobart

Jalen Collins – CB – LSU

Grady Jarrett – DT – Clemson

Reese Dismukes – OC – Auburn

Ameer Abdulla – RB – Nebraska

Lorenzo Mauldin – OLB – Louisville

Here’s a guy that can rush the passer. Hopefully, he’ll last this long.

DJoun Smith – CB – Florida Atlantic (from Miami)

Arie Kouandjio – OG – Alabama

Brett Hundley – QB – UCLA

Rashad Greene – WR – Florida State

Devin Funchess – TE/WR – TSUN

Daryl Williams – OT – Oklahoma

Alex Carter – CB – Stanford

Jaquiski Tartt – S – Samford

Derron Smith – S – Fresno State

Tyler Lockett – WR – Kansas State

Tre’ McBride – WR – William & Mary

David Johnson – RB – Northern Iowa

Duke Johnson – RB – Miami (FL)

Jeremy Langford – RB – Michigan State

Josh Shaw – CB – USC

John Miller – OG – Louisville

Cedric Ogbuehi – OT – Texas A&M

TJ Yeldon – RB – Alabama

The Trent Richardson experiment was a complete debacle, but that doesn’t stop Indy from taking his former team mate.

Marcus Hardison – DT – Arizona State

Denzel Perryman – ILB – Miami (FL)

David Cobb – RB – Minnesota

Justin Hardy – WR – East Carolina (compensatory pick)

Garrett Grayson – QB – Colorado State (compensatory pick)

Jordan Hicks – OLB – Texas (compensatory pick)

 

OTHER BROWNS PICKS:

 

111: Dezmin Lewis – WR – Central Arkansas

 Small college prospect with a big body (6’-4”, 214 lbs.) and huge catching radius  – particularly useful for when the Browns are in the red zone

115: Lynden Trail – DE – Norfolk State

Another athletic big body (6’-7”, 269 lbs.) that may start out as a pass rushing specialist

147: Nick O’Leary – TE –Florida State

The supposition is that O’Leary will serve more as an H-back type of TE, but he’s a very sure handed receiver

188: Mark Myers – QB – John Carroll

Prototypical size (6’-4”, 220 lbs.) left handed small college project with a big arm and touch on his throws

229: Justin Manton – K – Louisiana-Monroe

Phil Dawson isn’t walking through the doors at 76 Lou Groza Boulevard anytime soon

 

UNDRAFTED ROOKIE FREE AGENT POSSIBILITIES:

 

Brian Mihalik – DE – Boston College

Long bodied (6’-9”, 302 lbs.) project as pass rusher and FG block unit member

Trevor Pardula – P – Kansas

You always bring in a punter for competition and a possible practice squad assignment

Conner Neighbors – FB – LSU

They may not draft a FB this year, but they’ll bring in a warm body at the position

Deiontrez Mount – OLB – Louisville

Another big (6’-5”, 245 lbs.) athletic guy for the defense

Nick Perry – FS – Alabama

No DB’s drafted in my mock, but they’ll bring in two or three for a look-see

Damian Parms – SS – Florida Atlantic

Here’s another one for a look-see

Justin Coleman – CB – Tennessee

Top rated CB raked beyond number 257

Eric Lefeld – OT – Cincinnati

You always try to bring in one URFA O-lineman to develop on the practice squad

OBSERVATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS:

In the first three rounds I’ve got the Browns taking a run-stuffing defensive tackle, an O-lineman that can play any position and two big linebackers. Again I don’t have GM Ray Farmer selecting a receiver until at least the fourth round; and when I do it’s a big receiver that presents an immediate match-up problem for opposing defenses. As for Cameron Erving at nineteen . . . I mentioned earlier that starting center Alex Mack can opt out after the 2015-2016 season. Erving can compete for a starting job at guard or right tackle and then (if Mack bolts) he can slide into the starting center position. If one of the three top receivers fall to twelve, then I can see Farmer taking that player. Otherwise, I have to go with either a big DT or a pass rusher that comes off the edge. Considering that the Browns rushing defense was abysmal, I think they’ll take Shelton if he’s still on the board at twelve.

Considering the moves made during the free agency period, I’m convinced that Farmer is content with lining up Brian Hartline and Dwayne Bowe at the #1 and #2 receiver spots with Andrew Hawkins holding down the slot receiver spot. I’m also convinced that he envisions Rob Housler filling the shoes of the recently departed Jordan Cameron as the pass catching TE. If indeed Housler does this successfully, then Farmer will have saved the Browns some serious dollars on the salary cap over retaining Cameron; and payday will come in 2016 for Housler. I could just as easily have selected Alabama fullback Jalston Fowler in the fifth round instead of Nick O’Leary.

As for the selection of division III quarterback Mark Myers from John Carroll University . . . He’s 6’-4” tall and weighs 220 lbs., so he got good size for the position with a frame that can add muscle mass. He’s also accustomed to taking the snap from under center and making three, five and seven step drops. He has a bazooka for an arm, but can throw the football with touch. The left-handed quarterback also has excellent mechanics and is very good at making throws with anticipation. He’s a pocket passer that has the ability to buy time with his feet as protection starts to break down and find an open receiver. He’s also quite good at making pre-snap reads. The big knocks on him are (A) level of competition (B) he tends to stare down his receivers and (C) at times he hurries the play and doesn’t let it develop. Is he NFL ready right now? Of course not, but neither are any of the other quarterbacks in this draft. Myers is a kid with some talent that the coaching staff can develop while he spends a season on the practice squad and gets acclimated to the speed and terminology of the NFL game. The Browns are going to take a quarterback in this draft or make a trade for one on draft day. Barring any trades, this one makes the most sense because he has talent and experience in an NFL style offense, but he’s no immediate threat to any quarterback currently on the roster.

Am I going mad, or did the word THINK escape your lips? You were not hired for your brains, you hippopotamic landmass!

[Ice]

At first I hated your choice of Erving in the 1st. We have possibly the best center in the league, why draft a center? But reading your summation helped make it more palatable. IF Erving can slide over to guard (not sure if he has that skillset) then it makes sense. The front office absolutely nailed it last year with Bitonio. If they can replicate that again then we will have a front that is feared.

[BillWunkle]

Ice, I certainly understand your reservations about taking an O-lineman in the first round that’s not a LT. Cameron Erving was a left tackle before last season, and quite a good one at that. He has the skillset and the moxie to play ANY position along the O-line at the NFL level. If Erving is indeed the best player on the board when the Browns are on the clock, then they’d be FOOLISH TO NOT TAKE HIM. The only other recourse I can see IF they stand pat at 12 and Shelton is on the board is the Browns taking a pass rusher there and then trading up from 19 to take Shelton . . . perhaps as high as 13th for back-to-back picks.

Tampa Bay has been well aware of all of “Mr. Crab Legs'” escapades for several months now. They’re not veering from taking him first overall. Tennessee is the team that holds the key to how this draft goes early on. I think that they’re willing to roll the dice with Zach Mettenberger as their starting QB and really want to take Leonard Williams off the board. However, they’re willing to listen to any and all offers. Their phone lines will be red hot on draft day. If they don’t get the offer they want, then They’ll take Williams. If they do, then they will have fleeced a team of a combination of players and draft picks for the right to draft – and I know you don’t want to hear this – Marcus Mariota.

With the pending move from San Diego to Los Angeles, the Chargers have a starting QB in Phillip Rivers that’s in the last year of his current contract who’s already on the record for saying that he’s not moving to LA. The Bolts will move Rivers to some NFL franchise that needs a QB. It could be Tennessee, possibly the J-E-T-S or even your Cleveland Browns. Why Cleveland? It’s simple . . . who’s your quarterback, dude?

Am I going mad, or did the word THINK escape your lips? You were not hired for your brains, you hippopotamic landmass!

[Ice]

I absolutely hate Mariota as a top 5 pick. I can’t emphasize that enough. The guy hasn’t taken a snap under center or even called a play since high school. He ran a single-read offense his whole life. I’m not saying that means he’s bad, I’m saying there’s no possible way to know if he’s good. There is no tape of him doing anything that he’ll be doing in the NFL. His game film is only slightly more useful than a youtube video of a guy throwing a football from a roof into a trashcan in the back of a moving pickup truck. Also I’m sick of hearing about ‘quiet leadership’. I’m sorry but there’s no such thing. The fact that he’s not taking his teammates to task for mistakes or motivating them to win means he’s not leading them. He’s just the guy that throws the football.

I’d rather see us follow your draft here and grab a QB in the 3rd or 4th round and set the rest of the team up for success instead of putting all our eggs into one basket. It would be like spending your entire salary on lottery tickets and just hoping you can pay your bills later.

[Author]

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