[BillWunkle]

BILL WUNKLE’S BROWNS POST-DRAFT ANALYSIS

All righty then . . . Now that we’ve all had some time to digest all that happened in Chicago from Thursday night through all day Saturday, I figured it was only fitting to give my two-cents worth.

DRAMA FROM EARLY ON . . . ROUND ONE:

The first night of the draft was one of the crazier ones from early on that I can remember; especially after Laremy Tunsil had his social media accounts hacked. Once the Browns traded out of the #2 spot and pretty much told the football world that they weren’t interested in taking Carson Wentz there; I genuinely thought that there would be a play for one of the top OT’s somewhere around the #8 slot. I normally try not to include trades in my final mocks; but I was so compelled to have the Browns trade down again because my conviction on the matter was so strong. As it turned out, I was right. But hey, even a blind squirrel gets a nut every now and then. I also thought that the WR’s would start going off the board somewhere around 15-17. As it turned out, the Browns needed help at WR and Tennessee needed a top OT . . . so there you have it. To his credit, Sashi Brown got a much better deal than what I thought he could. For the trade, I give the rookie GM an A+.

Then Commissioner Goodell stepped up to the podium and said, ” With the fifteenth pick in the 2016 NFL draft, the Cleveland Browns select . . . Corey Coleman – WR – Baylor University.”

PICK ANALYSIS . . .

Seemingly everyone’s consensus #1 receiver was Laquon Treadwell, but the Browns criteria was a little different. For Head Coach Hue Jackson’s offensive scheme to work, the Browns needed to get a speed guy to stretch the field. Well, Corey Coleman ran a 4.37 in the 40 at his pro day. It was also apparent that this front office more than ever is basing their picks on tangible results – call it analytics if you like. Coleman had crazy production numbers in spite of missing time with an injury. He’s also got a 41.5″ vertical leap and a 129″ (that’s 10′-9″ for those of you having a little trouble doing the math) standing broad jump, which means that he’s going to win a LOT of the 50/50 balls. The combination of real life foot speed and leaping ability gives Coleman an explosiveness unlike any other receiver in this draft.  After much consideration, I give this pick an upgrade to an  A+ from my initial thoughts. Unlike some of those well-known national pundits, the selection doesn’t have to be the one I made in order for me to like it. It’s more important to understand the thought process of why a particular receiver is selected where he’s selected. While the comparison to Percy Harvin may be somewhat accurate because of his explosiveness, I prefer to liken him to a faster, stronger and more explosive version of former LSU Tiger Odell Beckham Jr.

THEN THE DUST BEGINS TO SETTLE . . . ROUND TWO:

The first round came to an end, there was one prevailing thought . . . “The Browns were going to get a very good player at the top of the second round”. As it turned out, they selected a player that virtually everyone had going somewhere between 16-24 in Oklahoma State DE Emmanuel Ogbah. While he’s not your prototypical five technique in a 3-4 defensive set; he has shown a propensity to get after the opposing quarterback, which is something the Browns defense has been lacking under the previous regime. I think it’s also important to note that this man child  I wrapped in a 6′-4″ 273 pound body with 35-1/2″ arms and 10″ hands ran a 4.63 in the 40. Explosiveness off the line is critical in rushing the QB. It’s a beautiful thing when talent meets need, and such is the case here. This pick gets an upgrade from my initial B+ to a solid A.

AND THE PICK JUST KEEP ON COMING . . . ROUND THREE:

Penn State DE Carl Nassib (65) provides the length (6′-7″ tall, 272 pounds, 34-1/2″ arms and 10-3/8″ hands)you look for in a five technique playing in a 3-4 set. His frame is such that he can add muscle mass to hold up better against the run. Nassib is one of those high motor/effort players that’s simply relentless. Once he actually learns how to play the position, it could be scary to see what he could become. For now I’ll give this pick a solid B.

With the Browns losing two starters off the O-line to free agency, it was only a matter of time before they’d take an O-lineman. They found one at 76th overall in Auburn OT Shon Coleman. With 35-1/8″ long arms and 10-1/2″ hands, he has the equipment to keep pass rushers at bay – once he once he gets his technique up to snuff. For now I’ll give this pick a solid B.

After taking a blatant pass on one of the true franchise caliber quarterbacks in the draft, the Browns brain trust selected USC signal caller Cody Kessler 93rd overall; using a pick they obtained from Carolina. At 6′-1″ tall and 220 lbs., he’s not the ideal size you’re looking for in a QB, but he’s tall enough. His most intriguing physical feature is surprisingly . . . his hands. At 10-7/8″, only Dak Prescott’s are as big as Kessler’s of all the quarterbacks invited to the combine. Why all the talk about hand size? Larger hands are typically able to grip the football better, allowing for better ball security in the pocket and aids with throwing accuracy. In Kessler’s case, his accuracy was exactly why coach Jackson wanted to draft him.  As a three year starter, he never completed less than 65% of his passes in any single season – compiling 88 TD’s (he also ran for seven) while only giving up 19 INT’s. In case you’re wondering, that’s a little more than 4.6 TD’s for each INT thrown (rushing TD’s not included).  Almost as important, USC ran a pro style offense; so he’s accustomed to working both from under center and in the spread.  Some may look at Kessler and compare him to another former Browns draft pick in Colt McCoy. However, I would liken him to a somewhat stronger armed version of former New York Jet and Miami Dolphin, Chad Pennington. According to the NFL’s own website, it appears that the Browns could’ve waited until the fourth round to take him. However, there was word that they were considering taking him in round two, but opted for a pass rusher. I dare say that it’s better to take a player that you like while he’s still on the board instead of waiting and having someone else take him. Considering where they selected Kessler, I give the Browns a solid C with the potential to move upward. Let’s see if the quarterback whisperer can make this selection pay dividends within two years before we go crazy and talk about ordering any playoff tickets. Where they selected Kessler, there’s no need to rush him into a baptism of fire.

FOUR FOR ROUND FOUR . . .

Wisconsin linebacker Joe Schobert was the Browns first pick in the fourth round (99th overall). Versatility seems to be Schobert’s forte, as he can both rush the passer and drop into coverage with equal efficiency. While it’s possible that he may come in and compete for a starting job right away, the best bet is that he’ll get some grooming on special teams while getting adjusted to the pro game. While he lacks the size and length NFL scouts are looking for, Schobert emphasizes technique to get production on the field. All things considered, I give this pick a solid C, but only because I think the Browns could’ve selected him about fifty picks later. Hopefully he and the Browns will prove me wrong and he’ll end up being one of the third day steals of the 2016 NFL Draft.

Auburn WR Ricardo Louis was the Browns next selection at 114th overall. He’s one of those size/speed combinations that needs some “coaching up” at the next level.  His combine numbers are nice . . . very nice,  but some scouts question his hands and his route running ability. His explosiveness leads me to believe that he’s a candidate as a return specialist or as a gunner on punt coverage. I have to give this pick a D- because he was taken at least a round and a half too soon. It’s up to Louis and the Browns coaching staff to prove me wrong. The kid has incredible athleticism. I just hope that he takes to good coaching.

TCU free safety Derrick Kindred was selected 129th overall. This kid will have an opportunity to prove that he was worth taking here. I’m not holding my breath on this one, as his initial draft grade was somewhere in the 7th round to URFA range. While this pick does address a need, I’m giving it a D- because of where he was selected. Prove me wrong, Derrick . . .  PLEASE prove me wrong. For now, I think they took this kid because he’s a real throwback kind of thumper for the back end of the defense.

With the Browns first compensatory pick, they went off the charts with the selection of Princeton TE/WR Seth Devalve. No kidding. They took a player that I didn’t even have on my chart because he wasn’t even invited to the combine. The good news is that he’s an Ivy Leaguer, so he’s got to be smart. His 6′-4″ / 245 lbs. frame can actually add some more muscle mass if they want to line him up inline. My guess is that they’ll want to flex him out to create a size mismatch in their favor. The bad news is that this is a weak TE class. Word has it that he does have “plus” ball skills. I sure hope they know what they’re doing here, because right now this pick gets an F.

FOUR MORE IN THE FIFTH . . .

With the Browns having already taken a pair of speedy receivers and a flex TE, they opt for . . . yes, you guessed it, another receiver with some size and speed with the 154th overall pick. UCLA’s Jordan Payton is considered by many to be more of an underneath the coverage possession receiver. I’m starting to get the feeling that Hue Jackson has never met a receiver he didn’t like . . . either that or our receivers group was even worse than what I’d previously thought. By all accounts, Payton would’ve likely been available for the Browns to take at the top of the seventh round. It’s for that reason that I give this pick an F for the initial grade.

Fourteen picks later (168th overall), Sashi and the Harvard crew return to addressing the O-line and take Baylor guard Spencer Drango. I’m not normally in favor of taking O-linemen that work exclusively from the spread, but this kid has some physical tools. There seems to be a recurring theme with later round picks in that the Browns appear to be taking them off the board at least a round too early. However, they didn’t have a sixth round pick at this point; so they bit the bullet and took a player they liked. At this stage of the draft, it’s all a crapshoot anyways; so I’ll cut them some slack on this one and give it a solid C.

Another four picks later (172nd overall) the Browns got some value by taking yet another receiver in Colorado State’s Rashard Higgins. I suspect that the reason for his decline during the draft was his 4.64 forty time at the combine. By all accounts, this kid should’ve already been off the board about fifty picks before this. For that reason, I give the Browns and A+ . . . in spite of the fact that he’s the fourth wide out taken by Cleveland in this draft.

With the very next pick, the Browns went off the chart again to take an undersized CB in Trey Caldwell from Louisiana-Monroe. At 5′-9″ and 186 lbs., Caldwell wasn’t even invited to the combine. You’ve drafted receivers that are 5′-11, 6′-2″, 6′-1″ and 6′-1″ respectively. Why take an undersized cornerback that will draw instant comparisons to Buster Skrine? For the Browns sake I hope I’m wrong, but this looks like another swing and a miss. I give this pick an F- .

MOVING CLOSER TO MR. IRRELEVANT . . .

With the Browns final pick in the draft (250th overall), they take a kid whose injury history trumped his talent level last year. Arizona ILB Philip Anthony Wright III (better known as “Scooby” ) was rated just outside the top 40 by some pundits. When he found out that he was drafted by the Browns in the seventh round, he proceeded to jump a chain link fence to dive into a swimming pool. Wright is known as a high motor/high effort type of player. I give this pick an A+ for the value and where he was selected. It can only get better if this get gets and stays healthy, but this was a low risk pick with high reward potential.

OVERALL GRADE . . .

It sounds stupid to grade a draft before they play in an actuall NFL game. But in this microwave society that we’re living in, that’s exactly what’s expected. While there were some very good picks, I have to give this year’s Cleveland Browns draft a C- because there were too many swings and misses. With a total of 14 picks, perhaps they increased their chances of finding diamonds in the rough by sheer numbers.

FOR WHAT IT’S WORTH . . .

According to NFL.com, the Browns have the 2nd ranked class of undrafted rookie free agents. That list includes . . .

Dominique Alexander – LB – Oklahoma

Brad Craddock – K – Maryland

Kenya Dennis – DB – Missouri

Mikell Everette – DB – Sam Houston State

JP Holtz – TE – Pittsburgh

Tracy Howard – DB – Miami

Nile Lawrence-Stample – NT – Florida State

Mike Matthews – OC – Texas A&M

Kyle Rose – DL – West Virginia

Patrick Skov – FB – Georgia Tech

AJ Stamps – FS – Kentucky

 

ON A PERSONAL NOTE . . .

This year’s analysis was delayed in part by my attentions being drawn elsewhere. Believe it or not, there actually are a few things that are more important than football. As it turned out, on day three of the draft, our first grandchild was born . She came into this world weighing 7lbs. 6oz., 20″ long and with a full head of medium brown hair. Both daughter-in-law and granddaughter are doing fine. Mrs. Wunkle and I are so looking forward to this next stage in our lives together as grandparents. And with that I bid you all a good night from “The Padded Cell”.

 

Am I going mad, or did the word THINK escape your lips? You were not hired for your brains, you hippopotamic landmass!

[Ice]

Congrats on the grandkid! It’s official, you are a crusty curmudgeon.

I’m still amazed that you somehow predicted that the Browns would trade down to spot 15 and take a WR. How do you do that? Getting it right 2 years in a row (and with 2 different regimes) is not luck. I think you’ve got an inside source.

[BillWunkle]

Well, I did miss on WHICH receiver they’d take . . . so I’m hardly clairvoyant. As for last year’s mock . . . Danny Shelton was pretty much a consensus pick, and we all pretty much knew that Ray Farmer didn’t value the WR position. We also pretty much knew that Alex Mack was gone with the first flight out of town because that’s what he wanted even before last season started.

Getting back to this year’s draft . . . One of the aspects of analytics is finding ways to increase your chances for success. One of the ways that you do that is to trade down – even if it’s just a little bit – to acquire more picks. The more picks you have, the more chances you have at making successful picks. One thing that Sashi and the Harvard crew have been successful at is properly valuing what they can get in exchange for trading down. As of right now, the Browns have two firsts and two seconds in next year’s draft – although they don’t have a fourth or a seventh. That doesn’t even count the compensatory picks they’ll get for losing Alex Mack, Mitchell Schwartz and Tashaun Gipson to free agency. But I digress. It made too much sense for the Browns to not stand pat at #8 after they announced to the world that they weren’t interested in Carson Wentz. Tennessee needed to fortify their O-line, and I thought they’d be poised to take Notre Dame OT Ronnie Stanley because I thought that Laremy Tunsil would be the first OT taken off the board. As it turned out, Tunsil fell because of (A) the gas mask bong video and (B) his injury history. So I had Cleveland and Tennessee swapping picks with the Titans taking an OT and the Browns taking a WR because of the needs that both teams had in those areas. Tennessee also had the picks to trade up if that indeed was their plan – which is exactly what happened.

Finally . . . in Sashi Brown’s pre-draft presser, I was left with the strong inclination that – not only was another trade down possible – but the framework for such a move was already in the works . . . if not already agreed to in principle.

Am I going mad, or did the word THINK escape your lips? You were not hired for your brains, you hippopotamic landmass!

[Ice]

I LOVE teams that trade down, and I especially love when they don’t use all those extra picks to trade back up 5 spots to pick a guy no one else wants. It shows that unlike previous regimes Sashi and co didn’t panic. They didn’t get emotional. With each pick instead of falling in love with one guy they had a few guys they liked and valued similarly. Anyone who’s good at fantasy football knows the one guy in their league who is in LOVE with a certain player and will draft them 3 rounds early every single season. For once we weren’t that guy.

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