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This team has as many needs as it does issues. Among them, we lack game changers on both sides of the ball. While Sashi Brown was masterful at acquiring picks, he was shit at evaluating talent. As such, we have a roster littered with high picks that aren’t productive.
That being the case, the focus of this draft is to “hit” on picks on both sides of the ball. The emphasis on both sides of the ball is impact to scoring. We need to stop fighting reality. Hope is not a strategy.
With all that said, here are my assumptions:
Terrell Pryor returns to the Browns. Josh Rosen doubles down on his “my goal is to go to the right team, not get picked #1 overall” statement. Isaiah Crowell leaves the team via free agency and Duke Johnson gets converted to slot WR (it’ll make sense later). We do not trade for Alex Smith, instead using our considerable cap space to sign Kirk Cousins. We have an excess of money, not talent, and while I would love to see Alex Smith in Orange and Brown, I can’t see giving up a second round pick for him with the holes currently on our roster. So let’s begin, shall we?
Round 1 Pick 1: Trade to NY Giants. Rosen doesn’t want to play in Cleveland. For a guy that’s already got question marks about his desire to play football around him, I’m not throwing gas on that fire with the #1 overall pick. NY covets him and will have a new Head Coach eager to get “his guy” behind Eli Manning. They overpay because it’s their QB of the future, and we walk with their #2 pick this year, their second rounder in the 2018 draft and their first rounder in 2019.
Round 1 Pick 2: Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State
He is the “Andrew Luck type prospect” of running backs. When you look at what Ezekiel Elliot did for Dallas, it’s easy to see why Barkley makes sense here. He’s a human highlight reel that can run, catch passes out of the backfield and return kicks. at 5’11” and 234 lbs, he is a rare combination of size, speed and agility not seen since Adrian Peterson.Round 1 pick 3: The Colts could go a number of ways here, but I believe that with Barkley off the board, they address their need for a pass rusher and take NC State’s Bradley Chubb if they stay at #3. With Jacoby Brissett and Andrew Luck on the roster, expect them to trade out of this spot and Sam Darnold to be the selection.
Round 1 pick 4: Minkah Fitzpatrick, FS, Alabama
I bet you thought I was going QB here, didn’t you? Not with what we’re paying Cousins. For better or worse, a Cousins signing means he is the QB of the future, not just a bridge. While I don’t consider him Aaron Rodgers elite, he is the best answer at QB since the return. Which brings me to Fitzpatrick. A rare talent at the FS spot, our backfield needs all the help it can get and Fitzpatrick is easily the best DB in this draft. He will create turnovers and keep points off the board.Round 2 pick 33: Marcell Ateman, WR, Oklahoma
With apologies to Courtland Sutton, I believe Ateman is the best WR in this draft. This 6’4″ 220 lb monster has the makings of the next Mike Evans (I remember when I went to watch the tape on Manziel and realized that Evans was the star…Sorry Baker Mayfield) and we desperately need help at WR. I’m doing cartwheels if the pre-draft rankings on him hold and we can take him at the top of the second.Round 2 pick 34: Isaiah Oliver, CB, Colorado
The 6’1″ 190lb Oliver has the size and skill to be a #1 CB in the NFL.Round 2 pick 35: Tarvarus McFadden, CB, Florida State
The rangy McFadden pairs well with Oliver and helps lock down the Browns secondary for the foreseeable future.Round 2 pick 63: Chukwuma Okafor, OT, Western Michigan
Maybe Joe Thomas returns, maybe he doesn’t. Maybe we add a free agent, maybe we don’t. Okafor is a rock solid talent that bolster the OT position regardless of what happens.Round 3 pick 65: DeShon Elliot, SS, Texas
Elliot is a big bodied, hard hitting safety who isn’t a liability in pass coverage. Can struggle at times with open field tackling (fixable with coaching IMO), but his 6’2″ 210lb frame and ability to create turnovers makes him the prototypical “Legion of Boom” type safety.Dawgstyle’s Day 3 Dark Horse: Allen Lazard, WR, Iowa State
Good and bad, this kid reminds me of two former Wide Receivers. Ideal size with the strength and body control to win jump ball contests, he often makes the routine catches seem hard like Braylon Edwards used to. If he can work on his hands though, Lazard has the potential to be a red zone nightmare in the mold of Joe Jurevicius (as his 61 receptions for 799 yards and 9 TDs in 2017 would indicate).In the end, it’s about points. Score them. Keep the other guy from scoring them. We’ve spent a lot of time and picks on the players in the trenches. We lack skill on the perimeter. While you’re not going to fix that in a single draft, I went for players who had above average NFL physical attributes that could either score points or create turnovers. We have to take some risks and, more importantly, we need them to finally pay off.
818 mph. 13,723 feet. 3 second burn.
https://youtu.be/hy-3bb1Nqy0Not a bad approach, I like the focus on skill positions. Too many people are advocating the Browns to beef up the lines, when we’ve been doing that for years and elignoring the skill positions.
The whole thing, though, hinges on what you think of Kirk Cousins. Is he good enough to be the guy? He’s definitely good enough to win some games and keep us out of range if he top qb prospects for the foresable future. I’m very much torn on him, as I think he’s under appreciated, but not so much that I’m willing to give him the MONSTER a contract he will likely get.
I’ll say this though, if your goal is to win in 2018, this offseason would probably be the best way to accomplish your goal.
I appreciate the approach, I just view Cousins as a Scott Mitchell. He can’t win in a terrible division.
I look t Barkley and love him, and seeing Fournette today I get it. But I think we’d regret it and need to get our QB and stop passing on that chance.
Now if you go Cousins in a Glennon type deal and grab a Darnold at #2 and Fitz at 4 I’m on board. But I also don’t view Cousins as a team player just from things I’ve seen. He’s not the mentor type
Also, if you get Cousins you don’t want Pryor. They don’t mesh. Some Ave chemistry and some don’t. They definitely don’t.
Freedom!!!
I was waiting for the explanation that would make sense for moving DOOOOK to WR. I’m a fan of sending him out wide on occasion but he’s an astounding running back.
I don’t think your trade is realistic. We get a 3rd or 2nd from that move.Other than that this largely makes sense from a hole filling perspective. Also makes sense that if we grab Cousins we don’t grab a QB in the 1st round. Which is why I don’t want Cousins.
Good ideas, but I can’t see Dorsey not picking a QB at 1. At most, picking one at #2 via trade.
That said, I would LOVE to get Barkley here.
I don’t want Barkley. It’s not because I don’t think he’s an amazing player. He is probably the best prospect in this draft, but even the best no-lose prospect can bust. When was the last time an RB was taken so high? Trent Richardson?
Even if he doesn’t bust and he’s Adrian Peterson does that win you Superbowls? Not with our team. Plus we have an amazing RB in DOOOK. I think that we can take an RB to supplement DOOOK, a big thumper, in a much later round. We can get an RB who specializes in hard yards, short yardage, etc. He doesn’t need to be able to catch or run outside, we already have that guy. An absolute STUD short yardage/ inside runner can be gotten in the 3rd-5th.I don’t want Barkley. It’s not because I don’t think he’s an amazing player. He is probably the best prospect in this draft, but even the best no-lose prospect can bust. When was the last time an RB was taken so high? Trent Richardson?
Even if he doesn’t bust and he’s Adrian Peterson does that win you Superbowls? Not with our team. Plus we have an amazing RB in DOOOK. I think that we can take an RB to supplement DOOOK, a big thumper, in a much later round. We can get an RB who specializes in hard yards, short yardage, etc. He doesn’t need to be able to catch or run outside, we already have that guy. An absolute STUD short yardage/ inside runner can be gotten in the 3rd-5th.To play Devil’s advocate, Leonard Fournette was taken at #4 overall and he’s about to play in the AFC Championship game. His QB is arguably the worst ever starter to play in that game
Freedom!!!
Adding a stud RB to a team with a dominant defense makes sense. That’s a formula that has won championships in the past. Adding a stud RB to a team that went 0-16? Never been done.
Only 1 team went 0-16before us. Jax was 3-13 and did it and are now playing in the AFC Championship game.
(Still just playing Devil’s advocate). I want the QB
Freedom!!!
Play advocate all you want; Fournette is not the reason the Jags are where they are.
PPG went up nearly 7. And overall offense went from 23 to 6.
He made a massive impact on the team to catapult them on the offensive side. To think otherwise is foolish.
Freedom!!!
Play advocate all you want; Fournette is not the reason the Jags are where they are.
PPG went up nearly 7. And overall offense went from 23 to 6.
He made a massive impact on the team to catapult them on the offensive side. To think otherwise is foolish.I would argue the reason h made such an impact is because their RBs were pretty terrible before, so he was a huge upgrade to the position. Which, is the same reason Zeke had such a huge impact on the cowboys: he was a huge upgrade to the worst position.
For us, the worst position is the QB. So that’s where we should upgrade. And you can argue that Crowell May leave as a FA, and that’s fine. Crowell leaves, and our worst position is still QB.
there isn’t a huge drop off from saquan barkley and say royce freeman who is projected day 3 pick.
A top 5 pick on a RB is not a good investment imo
http://cloudassetserver.com/STL/posts/185/sp_04_976x0.jpg
A few things, if we’re advocating for devils here:
Fournette is not the reason the Jags are where they are.
He’s not THE reason, and he’s not the ONLY reason, but make no mistake he very much so is A reason.
The argument of Barkley vs. QB becomes irrelevant if we take Barkley at no.1. “what do you mean Shooter?” I’m glad you asked.
Make the safe, sure pick and take Barkley at no.1 overall. After that, we watch and see what happens. Most likely, the Giants take Rosen. Cool. Awesome. Swell. Whogivesashit let ’em. He doesn’t want us and we most likely don’t want him. Drafting at #3 are the Colts, who don’t need a QB. They can take whoever they want.
Then we’re back at 4 and we pick our QB of choice from the Darnold/Allen tree.
Now we have the RB we want AND the QB we want, and all is right in the universe.
“But dude, what if the Giants take Darnold”. Well that’s easy, we take Rosen. (or the Dark Horse Allen). This is a coin flip in the top 2 QB’s in the draft, it’s not really gonna matter which one you get as long as you get 1 of them. (Personally I’m putting more of my stock into the Allen cart, but I’ll digress on that until later).
The truth is it doesn’t really matter who the Giants take, we take which ever QB is left.
“But Shooter, what if the Giants or the Colts trade down and another QB needy team comes in and takes the QB that’s left?” Geez you guys sure ask a lot of questions, did ya know that? You’re paranoid too.
There’s no way in hell the Giants are trading the #2 pick. Eli is 87 years old and they just fired their head coach, and this high in the draft is uber rare for the Giants organization. They need to strike it big right here to reinvigorate the fanbase, and taking the future face-of-the-franchise Eli heir is unquestionably gonna happen here so please, stop asking silly questions.
As for the Colts. I’ll grant that there’s a possibility, but the reality is it’s not likely. It would cost whatever team that wanted to move up to 3 a fortune. I’m talking Hershel Walker/Ricky Williams-level fortune. Everyone still remembers what a QB needy Washington gave up to draft RG3, and so do the Colts. If someone really wants to trade up to 3 and grab whoever the Giants didn’t it’s going to cost the GM their job. It’s gonna take an entire draft to make that trade. The Colts are in a precarious position with the injury to Luck, and their defense is atrocious. They need a homerun here at 3 just about as badly as any team needs one. They need a game-changer for their club somewhere, and they have the pick of the litter at 3, so it’s not something that they’re going to just toss away with ease. I don’t see a deal being made.
So, that once again leaves the Browns sitting at 4 with the QB of the future waiting to have his name written on the card, and we already have Barkley with a C-town jersey on. And that my friends, is a coup d’etat.
How was that Devil’s advocation? It was pretty fuckin’ good wasn’t it? Yeah I know, I’m awesome.
Aah the old ‘either/or’ argument. 2 top QB’s in the draft, it doesn’t matter which one we get, let’s let some other team choose which one they want and we’ll get the other one. Really worked out great for the Seahawks when they got Rick Mirer instead of Drew Bledsoe. Or San Diego when they got Ryan Leaf instead of Peyton Manning. Or Washington when they got RG3 instead of Luck. The whole idea of ‘You take the best one, we’ll be happy with what’s left’ means you’re putting your trust in the other team’s scouts to get it wrong over your scouts ability to get it right. If we’re going to grab a QB it has to be at 1. Get the guy WE want at the most important position in sports, don’t let some other team dictate it to us.
Aah the old ‘either/or’ argument. 2 top QB’s in the draft, it doesn’t matter which one we get, let’s let some other team choose which one they want and we’ll get the other one. Really worked out great for the Seahawks when they got Rick Mirer instead of Drew Bledsoe. Or San Diego when they got Ryan Leaf instead of Peyton Manning. Or Washington when they got RG3 instead of Luck. The whole idea of ‘You take the best one, we’ll be happy with what’s left’ means you’re putting your trust in the other team’s scouts to get it wrong over your scouts ability to get it right. If we’re going to grab a QB it has to be at 1. Get the guy WE want at the most important position in sports, don’t let some other team dictate it to us.
Exactly. Perfectly stated.
Furthermore, the colts trading down is a very real possibility, which would leave us with the 3rd best qb. Why is it a possibility? The Broncos sit at 5 and the jets at 6, both needing a qb. The Browns have 0.000% chance of taking the player the colts want in your scenario, because they would be taking either a qb, or very unlikely, Fitzpatrick. And the colts aren’t interested in a FS after taking Hooker last year.
So, do I want the 3rd best qb prospect in the draft? No. I want the best qb prospect in the draft. I’m not interested in an RB in the top 5.
I agree as well. We were just offering up Devil’s advocate scenarios. 3 more months of babbling about it.
Freedom!!!
I agree as well. We were just offering up Devil’s advocate scenarios. 3 more months of babbling about it.
I was pretty clear on that I felt lol.
I think one of the things that I have always preached is knowing market sentiment. Take Derek Carr. The Raiders took Khalil Mack while QBs Johnny Manziel and Teddy Bridgewater came off the board. If he was “their guy” should they have taken him at #5? I think the argument could be made, based on his productivity, that taking Carr would not have been a bad option at #5 (especially in light of where Bortles, Manziel and Bridgewater are at in their respective careers). However, the Raiders would look VERY different without Khalil Mack. It’s arguable that Carr would not have been as successful without Mack anchoring the defense. The market matters.
If Allen is your guy, and the market says he is a top 10 pick (as opposed to top 5), he is a reach at #1. If the market favors Rosen and Darnold and Barkley is considered the BPA, you take Barkley at #1 and you wait to grab your QB at #4 because the odds of being able to pick both players you covet is significantly higher if you take Barkley first. However, if Allen blows up and considered the #1 QB on most people’s board, you can’t afford to take him at #4.
Successful organizations focus on the goal, not the path to the goal. If the goal is to get Barkley and Allen, you have to follow the path that has the greatest opportunity for success. Today, that means Barkley at #1 and Allen at #4. On draft day, that may mean Barkley @ #4 and Allen at the top of the second. Barkley could blow an ACL. Allen could score a 2 on the Wonderlic.
Consider this:
If two people bought GE stock at $18.00/share and sold 3 months later, did they make the same amount of money? You might be tempted to answer yes here, and you’d be wrong.
If person 1 bought the shares on November 1st 2008 ($18.00/share) and sold on February 1st 2009 ($8.40/share), they lost nearly $10/share.
If person 2 bought the shares on April 1st 1997 ($18.00/share) and sold July 1, 1997 ($24.87/share) they made almost 7 dollars a share.
My point?
Is buying GE stock at $18.00 a share a good idea? The answer is that it depends on the market. There’s a reason they call it draft stock fellas. Just sayin.
As a complete aside, I’m watching for GE to form a bottom with the intentions of increasing my position in their stock. As the example above proves, it may or may not be the right investment for you. Not advice. Just saying…
818 mph. 13,723 feet. 3 second burn.
https://youtu.be/hy-3bb1Nqy0With the raiders, it’s a difference of an entire round. Carr, for as good as he’s been, was not a great prospect in a year that lacked great QB prospects. The Raiders can say he was “their guy” but the fact is they took Mack because they weren’t sold on any qb and were ok with the possibility of not getting one.
We have to consider the possibility that if we pass on the qb we want at 1, we don’t get him at 4, because we likely won’t. NYG will likely take Eli’s heir, and some team will trade up with the colts because the Browns have a huge “QB NEEDED” sign on their front yard and some team will want to snag one before we pick. Don’t believe me? Ask the Chiefs why they traded up for Patrick Mahomes.
I lost my damn train of thought but basically you have to assume other teams will grade qbs the same as you, otherwise you’re assuming you’re smarter than them or their smarter than you, and you’re really just outsmarting yourself.
Check out bullet point #2.
818 mph. 13,723 feet. 3 second burn.
https://youtu.be/hy-3bb1Nqy0
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