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The Browns are reportedly seeking a first round pick for Baker (as was I) but it seems like that is not going to happen.
Teams that needed a starting QB before today were the Colts, Falcons, Seahawks, Panthers, Texans (not interested in Mayfield), Giants and Steelers. I could have included the Saints if they traded Ryan and the Lions but they would face a huge cap hit if they released Goff so that is unlikely. Trading Baker Mayfield to the Steelers doesn’t seem like something we would do unless they blow us away with an offer (not happening).
With the Colts acquiring Matt Ryan, Baker Mayfield’s preferred destination, we can count them out.
The Atlanta Falcons signed Marcus Mariotta (a player I thought the Browns may sign to replace Baker before we traded for Watson) to a 2 year / $18.75M deal and although 9 million per year is cheap for a starter, it is expensive for a backup so I don’t think Mayfield is in play there.
The New Orleans Saints resigned Jameis Winston to a 2 year / $28M deal so take them off the list.
It leaves the Seahawks, Panthers, Texans, and Giants.
Since Mayfield is due to make $18.858M and is coming off an injury riddled horrible season along with surgery means teams aren’t going to give up a high draft pick (I had rose colored glasses on before but took them off). I do think that if the Browns find a trade partner, paying part of Baker’s salary would help secure a higher pick.
The Giants have until May to decide on whether they to exercise the $22 plus million fifth year option (they shouldn’t). They are already over the cap and already have to find ways to trim salary so this seems unlikely.
The Seahawks have Drew Lock and Jacob Eason (combined to make less than $2.5M in 2022). Would seem to me that they would be interested in a starting caliber QB and in my opinion, the most likely destination for Baker Mayfield.
Watson’s contract for 2022 is basically $1m salary $45m bonus. That $45m all hits our cap this year essentially making us very cash-poor. We can’t resign Baker to lessen the cap hit for another team. Whatever team he goes to will have to figure it out.
The signing bonus of is spread out over 5 years. So that is $8.993M a year against the cap for 2022. His salary for this year is $1,035M. The cap hit for this year is $10.028M according to Spotrac. After this year the cap hit will be $54.993M for 2023, 2024 and 2025.
The cap hits for Chubb, Cooper, Bitonio and Garrett and John Johnson in 2023 all go up a lot. This doesn’t include Denzel Ward who unless we trade him will be in line for a large payday too.
Starting next year things are going to get a lot more complicated. They will be restructuring a lot of contracts next year, converting some salaries into signing bonuses which will help lower the cap hits for 2024 but increase them in future years. Every good team has to do it. The one good thing is the NFL salary cap is increasing because of the new TV deal. Hopefully the Browns have a salary cap savant.
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