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Tale of the Tape: 2017 NFL Draft Prospect Film Study – Patrick Mahomes II
I know I said Jonathan Allen was next, and by all rights he should be. That was before QB Patrick Mahomes II from Texas Tech announced he was declaring for the 2017 NFL Draft at 10:00 CST this morning. So what would make me write an article about a QB projected to be taken in the 2-3 round over a DE from Alabama that might be the first pick in the NFL draft? October 22, 2016 – when Patrick Mahomes II threw for 734 yards, 6 TDs, 1 INT and ran for another 85 yards and 2 TDs in a 66-59 loss to #16 Oklahoma.
As many of you know, I’m a Browns fan stuck in Titletown, U.S.A – that’s Green Bay, WI for those of you not familiar with the moniker. As the Browns have struggled to find their QB of the future since they returned in 1999, 2 QBs have taken 99.99% of the snaps for the Packers: Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers. By comparison, the Browns have trotted out more than 26 starting QBs over that same period. Even if I haven’t seen it in Orange and Brown, I know what HOF QB play looks like. I watch it on the field every single week. I hear the training camp reports and local interviews. Great quarterbacks have a certain something, and when I saw it in Patrick Mahomes II on that fateful Saturday, he made me a believer that he would be one of the next great QBs in the NFL.
Let’s start with the concerns: Mahomes II plays in the Air Raid offense in the marshmallow soft Big 12. There is a possibility that he is the product of a simplified offensive system known for inflating quarterback production in a conference known for poor defense. Those are very real concerns and I’m afraid that there’s not a whole lot I can do to alleviate them. Yet.
Remember his 2-3 round grade as he heads into the combine though. Against other quarterbacks in identical situations, I believe Mahomes II will shine. I fully expect him to come out of the prospect as with a 1-2 round projection, and will eat the necessary crow if he does not.
There are also concerns about his mechanics. His delivery is unconventional and he has a tendency to throw off of his back foot while falling backwards instead of getting his set. He relies too much on his arm strength, scouts say. Perhaps.
One man’s trash is another man’s treasure. I see a QB who can deliver the ball accurately from multiple angles. I see a QB with elite arm strength who is the exception to the rule when it comes to footwork. I see a QB that can extend plays with his legs and buy time for his receivers to get open in spite of sub par offensive line play.
Mahomes II is listed at 6’3″ and 230 lbs. He has the size scouts covet and significantly above average mobility. He’s no Cam Newton or Marcus Mariota, but I think Russell Wilson is a fair comparison. Like Wilson, he was a dual sport athlete in college, playing both football and baseball (pitcher) up until last season before choosing to focus on football. Mahomes entered his freshman season in 2014 at Texas Tech as the backup to 2017 NFL Draft Prospect and Cal Sr QB Davis Webb. After a series of injuries to Webb, Mahomes started against Texas and never relinquished the starting role. In the final game of 2014, Mahomes set a freshman record throwing for 598 yards, 6 TD and an INT against Baylor.
A former college pitcher, Mahomes has elite arm strength, even by NFL standards. While his passes lack the zip of Elway and Favre, he is easily on par with Aaron Rodgers, making several down the field and back shoulder throws in 2016 that were indistinguishable from the Super Bowl Champion’s trademark tosses.
Perhaps the most interesting of Mahomes II’s stats is found in the splits. When his team is winning by 1-7 points, Mahomes II had a 72% Completion Percentage, 14.08 YPA, 7 TD and 0 INTs and 0 sacks with a 282.7 Rating. If I had one word to describe this kid in a close game: Gunslinger.
The Amazing (because good just doesn’t cut it): Mahomes II vs. Oklahoma
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-8evxif4FiI
Stats: 724 yards Passing, 5 TD, 1 INT, 85 yards Rushing, 2 Rushing TD
Notable Plays:
00:53 – Shows good anticipation, throws the ball before the WR gets out of his break. Nice touch, very catchable ball. +20 yard gain.
3:15 – NFL throw, frozen rope, perfect placement, receiver is able to catch the ball in stride and keep running.
4:39 – nice down the field throw to the outside shoulder, put the ball where only his WR could make a play.
5:03 – This is why I compare him to Johnny Manziel/Russell Wilson. Great escapability, excellent throw. 3rd and 12, obvious passing situation, defense can’t bring him down and he gets the 1st down.
5:23 – fakes a QB draw, sucks the linebackers up to the LOS, completes an easy pass over the middle to his RB.
7:08 – shows great feel for the pocket, runs but keeps his eyes down field. Completes pass for TD, called back for OL holding.
8:14 – Feels pressure as the pocket collapses, steps up and makes NFL throw into tight window for a big gain.
8:29 – misreads the secondary and throws an interception at the goal line. Costly INT.
9:14 – No receivers open, runs for 20 yard gain, slides to avoid contact.
11:01 – another nice throw into a very tight window on 3rd and 15 for a 1st down.
11:39 – uses the read option to sell the defense on the run, throws to the wide open WR for a TD. Called back, ineligible receiver down field.
12:21 – 2nd down and 25, standing at the 41 yard line, drops the ball in perfectly for a TD.
13:17 – right handed QB, running to his left, squares shoulders and delivers a strike 20 yards down the field. Called back due to a chop block.
13:52 – running to his left again, sets up and throws a TD from the 50 yard line as momentum is still carrying him towards the sideline.
16:03 – After several plays where he overthrew the receiver, throws while falling backwards off his back foot. Ball travels 50 yards in the air hitting the receiver for a TD.
16:26 – feels pressure, steps up in the pocket and throws a laser to his WR 25 yards down the field. NFL throw.
16:36 – again feels pressure and steps up in the pocket. Takes the mustard off of it this time and lobs it (good throw selection given the proximity of the RB) for a first down.
Notes: Mahomes has excellent ball placement and regularly hits his receivers in stride, allowing them to pick up YAC. Not afraid to throw the ball away to prevent a loss of yards when WR are not open. Slides instead of seeking contact as runner. I remember how exciting this game felt when I watched it live. In terms of game film, it is very pedestrian (for a 724 yard performance). There are a lack of “wow” moments from the WRs and it really just looks like excellent execution of the gameplan.
The Average: Mahomes II vs. LSU @ the Texas Bowl
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k4rGwPzAnbo
Notable Match Up: Mahomes II vs. the top 25 LSU Tigers Defense
Stats: 28/56, 370 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT
Notable Plays:
00:33 – Steps up in the pocket and delivers a strike on the run for a first down.
00:50 – Running to his left, throws back to his right. Throws a dart for a first down.
00:56 – 45 yards bomb for a TD. Perfect placement.
1:19 – LSU breaks through the Texas Tech line, Mahomes runs, spins, delivers a perfectly placed pass for a first down.
1:47 – QB keeper, beats the LSU defense to the edge and gains a first down.
2:24 – throwing lane blocked, changes delivery and throws sidearm for a first down.
2:32 – catches defense off guard, takes the snap before they are set, quick screen for a first down. Excellent awareness.
4:48 – catches defender offsides, makes them pay with a 40 yard bomb for a TD.
5:22 – outruns 2 LSU defenders, delivers a dime as he gets crushed by the LB as the receiver easily picks up a first down. WOW.
5:49 – Another throw across the grain on 3rd and 4 for yet another first down.
6:47 – rolls right, throws on the move, perfectly placed for another first down. Very Aaron Rodgers-esque. Only a handlful of QBs in the NFL could make that throw.
7:50 – Pocket collapses around him, rolls right through the hole (good vision), delivers a perfect throw into a tight window for first down.
Notes: Continued to play at a high level against top notch opponent LSU. Made several plays that showcase his elite arm and elusiveness. Does things many other players simply just can’t. Despite the 56-27 loss, Mahomes had more “wow” moments in this game than he did against his record setting performance Oklahoma.
Normally, I would included game film from a poor performance here, but with an average of just under 50 attempts per game, Mahomes II would be drafted and making his first start in the NFL before I finished watching and commenting on the tape.
Instead, I’ll tell you about his worst statistical game. A 66-10 blowout by Iowa State that saw him go 18 of 36 for 219 yards, 1 TD and 2 INT (1 of only 2 games in 2016 where he threw more than a single interception) with a 99.2 Rating. The defeat came a week after Texas Tech lost to #13 Oklahoma State by one point on the road. As coach Kingsbury said in an interview “We just did not show up at all”. Mahomes would rebound the following week, completing 30 of 46 passes for 586 yards, 6 TD and 0 INTs with a 215.3 rating.
Would I take Mahomes at #1? Absolutely not. Would I take Mahomes at #12? Depends on how the draft process plays out. I would not be surprised to see him leapfrog North Carolina’s 1 year starter Mitch Trubisky on most draft boards by the time we’re on the clock. I would feel good about taking him at #33. Very good. Exceptionally good. I think he’s going to need some time to sit on the bench and watch, and a second round QB tends to get pressed into service less quickly than his first round counterparts. Would I move back up into the first round ahead of a team like the Texans? I would strongly consider it, especially if we are able to resign Terrelle Pryor and Jamie Collins and draft Myles Garrett at #1 and Jamal Adams/Malik Hooker/Jabril Peppers at #12. I’ll be the first to admit that Mahomes is a boom or bust prospect that is going to need a year or two to figure it out. But when he does? BOOM.
818 mph. 13,723 feet. 3 second burn.
https://youtu.be/hy-3bb1Nqy0I liked the write-up and all, but next time could you be a little more thorough?
I kid, I kid. That damn near made me want to draft the kid lol.
I would be hesitant due to the delivery. Typically teams try and change a successful QBs delivery which then ruins any hope. Bernie Kosar talked bout that with Quinn. The Browns changed his grip. When they drafted Kosar he said they left his delivery alone otherwise he probably would’ve failed in the NFL.
Freedom!!!
I would be hesitant due to the delivery. Typically teams try and change a successful QBs delivery which then ruins any hope. Bernie Kosar talked bout that with Quinn. The Browns changed his grip. When they drafted Kosar he said they left his delivery alone otherwise he probably would’ve failed in the NFL.
I think that is a fair concern given our history. I think there are some key differences between Mahomes II’s delivery issues and what we’ve seen with other prospects like Brock Osweiler, Brady Quinn, Paxton Lynch and Blake Bortles, specifically as it relates to the quickness of the release. that would keep us from repeating that mistake. Watch the film again. Mahomes II gets the ball out quickly with a “flick of the wrist”, very much like Russell Wilson (another pitcher turned QB) with excellent velocity and a tight spiral. The others listed all have/had very slow “wind up” releases and having their passes flutter. As such, the issues that require NFL teams to make adjustments to a QBs grip or mechanics are simply not present in Mahomes II.
The major knock against Mahomes II (and any air raid QB for that matter) in my opinion, is actually his footwork. Thus far he has been able to make up for with his arm talent at the collegiate level. Given the velocity on his throws, I’m not sure he won’t be able to do that at the pro level as well, BUT, his deep ball accuracy will improve greatly if he gets his footwork squared away.
That really is a great point though Soup. I think it would be a huge mistake to try to tinker with his mechanics. I’m not of the opinion that Hue Jackson and Pep Hamilton, both known to be good with QBs, would do that though. I point to Andy Dalton’s throwing motion as evidence of this.
Mahomes II:
Andy Dalton:
Do you disagree?
818 mph. 13,723 feet. 3 second burn.
https://youtu.be/hy-3bb1Nqy0As far as the Russell Wilson comparison . . . I get the mobility matched with a strong arm. However, Russell Wilson is 5′-10 barefoot and has very good mechanics. The year he came out in the draft, I told my sons, “If he were 6′-3” tall, he’d be a first rounder.
Am I going mad, or did the word THINK escape your lips? You were not hired for your brains, you hippopotamic landmass!
Bill, correct me if I’m wrong here, but after watching a lot of tape on this kid, I would say he has very good mechanics (in terms of a smooth delivery with no hitch, quick release with a flick of the wrist), but his footwork is crap and his release point are inconsistent (both things that can be improved by good coaching, neither in the order of “change your grip or throwing motion” difficulty to change).
So that the rest of you don’t think I’m crazy, just yesterday the Washington Post listed Mahomes as one of the “Others under first round consideration” and his agent, Leigh Steinberg (who has represented Troy Aikman, Steve Young, Warren Moon and Ben Roethlisberger) said ““I think he’s a little bit of a cross between a Ben Roethlisberger — little smaller — and Aaron Rodgers. Smart, very hard to bring down, and I think he’s going to be a franchise quarterback for some team.”. Now sure, his agent is going to say good things about him, but my Aaron Rodgers comparisons are not merely a product of my location. Additionally, the Dallas Morning News just ran an article yesterday titled “Any Concerns About Texas Tech QB Patrick Mahomes’ NFL future will be forgotten after the NFL combine“, echoing the points in my article from the previous day.
For a guy that so many here had never heard of, it’s validating to see these sorts of articles coming out when I was writing about him before he even declared.
818 mph. 13,723 feet. 3 second burn.
https://youtu.be/hy-3bb1Nqy0After watching a bit of the Oklahaoma tape – quite frankly – I’m not impressed at all. He does remind me too much of Manziel. He’s extremely skiddish. Not that accurate – and throwing off his back foot leaves his outs ripe in the NFL for a flurry of pick 6’s (at least 3 of his outs that were caught – if that was the NFL are going the other way). I’d root for him if we took him – just like any player we take – but I wouldn’t think of touching him before round 6.
Freedom!!!
There’s a reason I’ve said drafting a QB is an art and not a science. I’ve seen many of the same things you saw, and as I stated before, I think your concerns are valid. While I disagree with your overall assessment, I’ll be the first to agree that he is a boom or bust prospect, and I can’t blame you if you lean more towards the bust side of the argument (I mean, I’m not arguing for him with either of our first two picks, so I obviously realize he’s not a sure bet by any stretch). Thanks for the input, and keep an eye on him at the combine. I really think he’s going to be a riser.
818 mph. 13,723 feet. 3 second burn.
https://youtu.be/hy-3bb1Nqy0reminds me a bit of weeden at ok state…same kind of offence vs the same conference. Though mahomes is a much better athlete. But a big arm qb slinging it in an air raid O…very little of what he did at TX tech will transfer to nfl/
He will need a year possibly 2 to sit and learn.
In that vein look what goff looked like even though he was supposedly from a quote quote advanced version of the bear raid. Nothing transferred from cal IMO and goff was a fish out of water and a horrible year.
Would I roll the dice on him in the 3rd round or later? yup. Just because of the physical talent…would of done that for cardale jones or dak prescot last year too.
At some point physical talent warrants the risk even if a prospect is far from being NFL ready.
http://cloudassetserver.com/STL/posts/185/sp_04_976x0.jpg
reminds me a bit of weeden at ok state…same kind of offence vs the same conference. Though mahomes is a much better athlete. But a big arm qb slinging it in an air raid O…very little of what he did at TX tech will transfer to nfl/
I don’t disagree. There’s a few notable differences as far as I am concerned though, Mahomes didn’t have a physical specimen like Justin Blackmon to throw to. As a result, he didn’t get to lock onto one receiver like Weeden did. You can’t overlook that so much of his offense was generated when plays broke down, and he draws a lot of comparisons to Ben Roethlisberger as a result. Weeden was a statue with zero mobility. That said, I’m not going to disagree that it’s impossible to tell how much of that will translate to the NFL.
He will need a year possibly 2 to sit and learn.
If you look at Goff, I think that’s reasonable. If you look at Prescott, I’d say you just don’t know. Depends on the individual.
In that vein look what goff looked like even though he was supposedly from a quote quote advanced version of the bear raid. Nothing transferred from cal IMO and goff was a fish out of water and a horrible year.
The individual and the offensive scheme they are drafted into matters as much as the system they came from. I think Hue’s offense is far more friendly for young QBs than Rob Boras’s pass heavy offense that relies far less on the run game (a shame given how talented Todd Gurley is).
Would I roll the dice on him in the 3rd round or later? yup. Just because of the physical talent…would of done that for cardale jones or dak prescot last year too.
At some point physical talent warrants the risk even if a prospect is far from being NFL ready.
I agree, though I would take him at the top of the second (and I have my doubts that he’ll make it out of the first round). If he was available in the third round, I absolutely take him. Physically, he’s a first round talent. The Air Raid casts serious questions over his future (and rightfully so), but I would argue that the caliber of Air Raid QBs overall is on the rise, and more and more spread/air raid QBs will transition to the NFL successfully in the future.
818 mph. 13,723 feet. 3 second burn.
https://youtu.be/hy-3bb1Nqy0I’m just curious, how’s everyone feeling about Mahomes now?
818 mph. 13,723 feet. 3 second burn.
https://youtu.be/hy-3bb1Nqy0
818 mph. 13,723 feet. 3 second burn.
https://youtu.be/hy-3bb1Nqy0It’s a lot harder to predict success than failure. So DS gets more props for this prediction than Soup does for saying every QB is gonna suck.
It’s a lot harder to predict success than failure. So DS gets more props for this prediction than Soup does for saying every QB is gonna suck.
Thanks for the compliments. I appreciate that Ice :p
http://cloudassetserver.com/STL/posts/185/sp_04_976x0.jpg
“But a big arm qb slinging it in an air raid O…very little of what he did at TX tech will transfer to nfl…
In that vein look what goff looked like even though he was supposedly from a quote quote advanced version of the bear raid. Nothing transferred from cal IMO and goff was a fish out of water and a horrible year.”
No compliments for you Dawgsoldier. You were absurdly wrong about Mahomes and Goff while banging the table for Bortles and Tannehill. You wanted Bortles. Bortles.
818 mph. 13,723 feet. 3 second burn.
https://youtu.be/hy-3bb1Nqy0“But a big arm qb slinging it in an air raid O…very little of what he did at TX tech will transfer to nfl…
In that vein look what goff looked like even though he was supposedly from a quote quote advanced version of the bear raid. Nothing transferred from cal IMO and goff was a fish out of water and a horrible year.”
No compliments for you Dawgsoldier. You were absurdly wrong about Mahomes and Goff while banging the table for Bortles and Tannehill. You wanted Bortles. Bortles.Iwouldn’t say absurdly wrong about Mahomes. I said he needed a year or 2 on the bench. He had a year on the bench and now look at him.
As for Goff….Todd Gurley helps A LOT.
As for Tannehill. Isaid he’d be better than RG3 and Weeden. Was i wrong?
As for Bortles. Are we talking last years version or this years version?
http://cloudassetserver.com/STL/posts/185/sp_04_976x0.jpg
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