Tale of the Tape: 2017 NFL Draft Prospect Film Study – Patrick Mahomes II

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  • #7236
    Shooter
    Moderator

    I liked the write-up and all, but next time could you be a little more thorough?

    I kid, I kid. That damn near made me want to draft the kid lol.

    #7237
    soup
    Participant

    I would be hesitant due to the delivery. Typically teams try and change a successful QBs delivery which then ruins any hope. Bernie Kosar talked bout that with Quinn. The Browns changed his grip. When they drafted Kosar he said they left his delivery alone otherwise he probably would’ve failed in the NFL.

    Freedom!!!

    #7238
    Dawgstyle
    Participant

    I would be hesitant due to the delivery. Typically teams try and change a successful QBs delivery which then ruins any hope. Bernie Kosar talked bout that with Quinn. The Browns changed his grip. When they drafted Kosar he said they left his delivery alone otherwise he probably would’ve failed in the NFL.

    I think that is a fair concern given our history. I think there are some key differences between Mahomes II’s delivery issues and what we’ve seen with other prospects like Brock Osweiler, Brady Quinn, Paxton Lynch and Blake Bortles, specifically as it relates to the quickness of the release. that would keep us from repeating that mistake. Watch the film again. Mahomes II gets the ball out quickly with a “flick of the wrist”, very much like Russell Wilson (another pitcher turned QB) with excellent velocity and a tight spiral. The others listed all have/had very slow “wind up” releases and having their passes flutter. As such, the issues that require NFL teams to make adjustments to a QBs grip or mechanics are simply not present in Mahomes II.

    The major knock against Mahomes II (and any air raid QB for that matter) in my opinion, is actually his footwork. Thus far he has been able to make up for with his arm talent at the collegiate level. Given the velocity on his throws, I’m not sure he won’t be able to do that at the pro level as well, BUT, his deep ball accuracy will improve greatly if he gets his footwork squared away.

    That really is a great point though Soup. I think it would be a huge mistake to try to tinker with his mechanics. I’m not of the opinion that Hue Jackson and Pep Hamilton, both known to be good with QBs, would do that though. I point to Andy Dalton’s throwing motion as evidence of this.

    Mahomes II:
    Pat Mahomes II

    Andy Dalton:
    Andy Dalton

    Do you disagree?

    818 mph. 13,723 feet. 3 second burn.
    https://youtu.be/hy-3bb1Nqy0

    #7241
    BillWunkle
    Participant

    As far as the Russell Wilson comparison . . . I get the mobility matched with a strong arm. However, Russell Wilson is 5′-10 barefoot and has very good mechanics. The year he came out in the draft, I told my sons, “If he were 6′-3” tall, he’d be a first rounder.

    Am I going mad, or did the word THINK escape your lips? You were not hired for your brains, you hippopotamic landmass!

    #7243
    Dawgstyle
    Participant

    Bill, correct me if I’m wrong here, but after watching a lot of tape on this kid, I would say he has very good mechanics (in terms of a smooth delivery with no hitch, quick release with a flick of the wrist), but his footwork is crap and his release point are inconsistent (both things that can be improved by good coaching, neither in the order of “change your grip or throwing motion” difficulty to change).

    So that the rest of you don’t think I’m crazy, just yesterday the Washington Post listed Mahomes as one of the “Others under first round consideration” and his agent, Leigh Steinberg (who has represented Troy Aikman, Steve Young, Warren Moon and Ben Roethlisberger) said ““I think he’s a little bit of a cross between a Ben Roethlisberger — little smaller — and Aaron Rodgers. Smart, very hard to bring down, and I think he’s going to be a franchise quarterback for some team.”. Now sure, his agent is going to say good things about him, but my Aaron Rodgers comparisons are not merely a product of my location. Additionally, the Dallas Morning News just ran an article yesterday titled “Any Concerns About Texas Tech QB Patrick Mahomes’ NFL future will be forgotten after the NFL combine“, echoing the points in my article from the previous day.

    For a guy that so many here had never heard of, it’s validating to see these sorts of articles coming out when I was writing about him before he even declared.

    818 mph. 13,723 feet. 3 second burn.
    https://youtu.be/hy-3bb1Nqy0

    #7244
    soup
    Participant

    After watching a bit of the Oklahaoma tape – quite frankly – I’m not impressed at all. He does remind me too much of Manziel. He’s extremely skiddish. Not that accurate – and throwing off his back foot leaves his outs ripe in the NFL for a flurry of pick 6’s (at least 3 of his outs that were caught – if that was the NFL are going the other way). I’d root for him if we took him – just like any player we take – but I wouldn’t think of touching him before round 6.

    Freedom!!!

    #7245
    Dawgstyle
    Participant

    There’s a reason I’ve said drafting a QB is an art and not a science. I’ve seen many of the same things you saw, and as I stated before, I think your concerns are valid. While I disagree with your overall assessment, I’ll be the first to agree that he is a boom or bust prospect, and I can’t blame you if you lean more towards the bust side of the argument (I mean, I’m not arguing for him with either of our first two picks, so I obviously realize he’s not a sure bet by any stretch). Thanks for the input, and keep an eye on him at the combine. I really think he’s going to be a riser.

    818 mph. 13,723 feet. 3 second burn.
    https://youtu.be/hy-3bb1Nqy0

    #7246
    soup
    Participant

    You’re creating discussion which I love. Keep up the great posts.

    Freedom!!!

    #7409
    DawgSoldier
    Participant

    reminds me a bit of weeden at ok state…same kind of offence vs the same conference. Though mahomes is a much better athlete. But a big arm qb slinging it in an air raid O…very little of what he did at TX tech will transfer to nfl/

    He will need a year possibly 2 to sit and learn.

    In that vein look what goff looked like even though he was supposedly from a quote quote advanced version of the bear raid. Nothing transferred from cal IMO and goff was a fish out of water and a horrible year.

    Would I roll the dice on him in the 3rd round or later? yup. Just because of the physical talent…would of done that for cardale jones or dak prescot last year too.

    At some point physical talent warrants the risk even if a prospect is far from being NFL ready.

    http://cloudassetserver.com/STL/posts/185/sp_04_976x0.jpg

    #7411
    Dawgstyle
    Participant

    reminds me a bit of weeden at ok state…same kind of offence vs the same conference. Though mahomes is a much better athlete. But a big arm qb slinging it in an air raid O…very little of what he did at TX tech will transfer to nfl/

    I don’t disagree. There’s a few notable differences as far as I am concerned though, Mahomes didn’t have a physical specimen like Justin Blackmon to throw to. As a result, he didn’t get to lock onto one receiver like Weeden did. You can’t overlook that so much of his offense was generated when plays broke down, and he draws a lot of comparisons to Ben Roethlisberger as a result. Weeden was a statue with zero mobility. That said, I’m not going to disagree that it’s impossible to tell how much of that will translate to the NFL.

    He will need a year possibly 2 to sit and learn.

    If you look at Goff, I think that’s reasonable. If you look at Prescott, I’d say you just don’t know. Depends on the individual.

    In that vein look what goff looked like even though he was supposedly from a quote quote advanced version of the bear raid. Nothing transferred from cal IMO and goff was a fish out of water and a horrible year.

    The individual and the offensive scheme they are drafted into matters as much as the system they came from. I think Hue’s offense is far more friendly for young QBs than Rob Boras’s pass heavy offense that relies far less on the run game (a shame given how talented Todd Gurley is).

    Would I roll the dice on him in the 3rd round or later? yup. Just because of the physical talent…would of done that for cardale jones or dak prescot last year too.

    At some point physical talent warrants the risk even if a prospect is far from being NFL ready.

    I agree, though I would take him at the top of the second (and I have my doubts that he’ll make it out of the first round). If he was available in the third round, I absolutely take him. Physically, he’s a first round talent. The Air Raid casts serious questions over his future (and rightfully so), but I would argue that the caliber of Air Raid QBs overall is on the rise, and more and more spread/air raid QBs will transition to the NFL successfully in the future.

    818 mph. 13,723 feet. 3 second burn.
    https://youtu.be/hy-3bb1Nqy0

    #13898
    Dawgstyle
    Participant

    I’m just curious, how’s everyone feeling about Mahomes now?

    818 mph. 13,723 feet. 3 second burn.
    https://youtu.be/hy-3bb1Nqy0

    #13899
    Ice
    Keymaster

    #13901
    Dawgstyle
    Participant

    I am the prophet

    818 mph. 13,723 feet. 3 second burn.
    https://youtu.be/hy-3bb1Nqy0

    #13903
    soup
    Participant

    Looks like that’s Dawgstyle guy nailed this one huh?

    Freedom!!!

    #13906
    Ice
    Keymaster

    It’s a lot harder to predict success than failure. So DS gets more props for this prediction than Soup does for saying every QB is gonna suck.

    #13958
    DawgSoldier
    Participant

    It’s a lot harder to predict success than failure. So DS gets more props for this prediction than Soup does for saying every QB is gonna suck.

    Thanks for the compliments. I appreciate that Ice :p

    http://cloudassetserver.com/STL/posts/185/sp_04_976x0.jpg

    #13968
    Dawgstyle
    Participant

    “But a big arm qb slinging it in an air raid O…very little of what he did at TX tech will transfer to nfl…

    In that vein look what goff looked like even though he was supposedly from a quote quote advanced version of the bear raid. Nothing transferred from cal IMO and goff was a fish out of water and a horrible year.”

    No compliments for you Dawgsoldier. You were absurdly wrong about Mahomes and Goff while banging the table for Bortles and Tannehill. You wanted Bortles. Bortles.

    818 mph. 13,723 feet. 3 second burn.
    https://youtu.be/hy-3bb1Nqy0

    #13969
    Shooter
    Moderator

    Soup and DawgSoldier being amazingly wrong is pure concentrated glee.

    #13970
    DawgSoldier
    Participant

    “But a big arm qb slinging it in an air raid O…very little of what he did at TX tech will transfer to nfl…
    In that vein look what goff looked like even though he was supposedly from a quote quote advanced version of the bear raid. Nothing transferred from cal IMO and goff was a fish out of water and a horrible year.”
    No compliments for you Dawgsoldier. You were absurdly wrong about Mahomes and Goff while banging the table for Bortles and Tannehill. You wanted Bortles. Bortles.

    Iwouldn’t say absurdly wrong about Mahomes. I said he needed a year or 2 on the bench. He had a year on the bench and now look at him.

    As for Goff….Todd Gurley helps A LOT.

    As for Tannehill. Isaid he’d be better than RG3 and Weeden. Was i wrong?

    As for Bortles. Are we talking last years version or this years version?

    http://cloudassetserver.com/STL/posts/185/sp_04_976x0.jpg

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