[Dawgstyle]

Despite what some (Soup) have said, the sky is not falling. In fact, since the return, our future has never looked brighter. You can assert whatever you want about any of the picks thus far, but in terms of probability of success, the Browns are positioned to be disruptive in the NFL in 2017. Here’s why:

High risk, high reward. As the old saying goes, nothing ventured nothing gained. Was QB the biggest need heading into 2017? Absolutely. Should we have taken Trubisky or Mahomes at #1? Absolutely not. The fact of the matter is that while a good QB can elevate the play of those around them, it takes a few years to develop into a good QB in the NFL when making the transition from college. This is why rookie records, which serve as a baseline for all records, are so far below other NFL records. What might be a below season for a perennial All Pro is often a great start (for a rookie).

You all know I was a Mahomes fan. I think the kid is special. However, in my mock, I had us taking Mahomes at #52 (in that same draft I had us taking a DE, TE and S before addressing QB – just sayin). Mahomes didn’t last that long, but my point at that time was that even Brady couldn’t get the Browns to 8-8 with last season’s roster.

That is why I gave the Browns an A in this draft. Garrett and Peppers are the kind of players that Gregg Williams wants on his defense. Njoku has physical talent on par with Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates. Given the improvements to the line in the off season (which should help both the running and passing games) there are sufficient tools for a QB to work with. Best in class? No. But we should be able to score points with even a nominal improvement at the QB position.

Enter Deshone Kizer. Do you think after having Mayock rate him as the #1 QB in the draft he’s going to have a chip on his shoulder? I do. At 52 (where I had projected us taking Mahomes) he is a great value: CBS Sports had him ranked as the 34th best player in the draft -one spot ahead of Mahomes, Sports Illustrated had him ranked as the third best QB – just ahead of Mitch Trubisky, USA today had him ranked as the 27th best player in the draft – ahead of Mahomes, and as previously mentioned, Mike Mayock’s February Top 100 list ranked Kizer as the best QB in the draft.

Does Kizer have things he needs to fix? Yes. But he has prototypical height, weight, hand size and arm strength. He is a high first round physical talent with questions surrounding his consistency and decision making. Decision making can be coached and aided by play calling. Consistency? Overrated. Last year the Browns consistently sucked. I’ll take a few good games mixed into that shit show, even if it means we’re not as consistent.

I know that not everyone is going to share this sentiment, but I am legitimately excited. The improvements to the line will be huge for whoever starts under center (I’m calling it now, Kizer will start). I expect shades of Dak Prescott/Colin Kaepernick – at their best AND worst – in Kizer’s first year. But we can lean on the running game, Coleman will create a speed mismatch down the field, Njoku will present a size/athleticism mismatch over the middle, and Kizer is a threat to pull it down and run if the opportunity presents itself. In typical Browns fashion, we will lose some games we should have won. But I also think we’re going to win a few games that no one expects.

I’m drinking the Kool Aid. We become relevant (7+ wins) this year and may even challenge for a Wildcard spot. The Browns have addressed the roster in chunks, the culture is changing for the better, and the talent level is the highest it’s been since the return. We have a number of players with Pro Bowl caliber ceilings (Garrett, Peppers, Njoku, Kizer, Ogbah, Crowell, Thomas, Zietler, Collins, Haden, Coleman, Shelton, Nassib, Kirksey, Britt and Tretter) with a boat load of top draft picks next year. If Kizer is as bad as Soup is, our first rounder buys us USC’s Sam Darnold. What’s one more bad season if it finally stops the QB Carousel? If Kizer lives up to his potential, the rest of the roster gets a huge shot in the arm.

And that’s the pattern. High risk, high reward. Mitigate the risk, as the Browns continue to do by stockpiling future draft picks, and you’re left with just the potential for reward. If we take Peppers at 12 and he doesn’t work out, we wasted a pick. When we trade out of 12 (to Houston whose pick next year is extremely volatile because of their own questions at QB)to 25 and take Peppers, there is no risk because we still have a pick to replace him next year.

I can’t tell you how impressed I am with the implementation of Moneyball analytics into the NFL. We are making amazingly intelligent moves, and I can’t wait to see the product on the field this season. We may not have turned the corner yet, but its obvious to all but the most jaded that we’re turning it. Momentum is in our favor and the game plan of taking boom or bust impact players while stockpiling future picks to ensure a constant stream of explosive talent is working. If we stay the course, we’ll have rewritten the rule books (getting a second rounder for taking a player to reduce another team’s salary cap – genius!) and set ourselves up to dominate for years.

818 mph. 13,723 feet. 3 second burn.
https://youtu.be/hy-3bb1Nqy0

[mike barnes]

I agree 100% all the nay sayers think that we passed guys like hooker and oj howard but seeing what we got and where we got it this is our best draft since 99′

[DawgPoundDude]

On paper, this whole thing looks fantastic. And I’m with Mr. Barnes here…it looks to be the best draft since ’99. We have guys that seem to fit exactly what we’re looking for. We forced nothing, and all we gave up this whole draft (and likely robbed the Steelers in the process!) was a 4th. Yeah, good stuff. Analytics kick ass.

But that said, it’s all relative to how it all translates on the field. And in that, I’m not ready to send them to the playoffs just yet. This team has a lot to prove first. In that, it’s up to all who take the field to make that happen.

But I’m anxious to see if analytics saves this team.

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